Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (72%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 3%-6%?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 28¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes72¢No28¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$225.86

Smart Money Entry

83.5¢ → 28.5¢

-66% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$716.34

Total Shares853

Combined PnL+$584.21

No9 traders

Total Value$317.8

Total Shares886

Combined PnL-$358.35

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

274h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 47.2¢	$697.72	$631.02	+$357.53	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 13.2¢	$72.3	$357.21	+$441.2
└ No leg	Noavg 47.2¢	$369.33	$273.82	-$83.67
RememberAmalek	Yesavg 12.7¢	$79.27	$588.25	+$508.98	56% 1018-799 (1817)
IstarothCTR	Noavg 83.3¢	$284.14	$281.84	-$1.92	14% 461-2758 (3219)
LO Loyalty-Crash	Yesavg 13¢	$26	$102.5	+$76.5	66% 58-30 (88)
thanksforplayin<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$26.87	$25.59	-$1.27	56% 453-353 (806)
HaradwaithCTR	Noavg 88.5¢	$133.7	$16.66	-$117.04	41% 6218-9125 (15343)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR	Noavg 91.3¢	$131.71	$8.59	-$123.12	40% 285-429 (714)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 50.5¢	$30.3	$3.57	-$26.73	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 87.9¢	$51.04	$2.97	-$42.67	53% 8228-7325 (15553)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Noavg 81.4¢	$30.93	$2.26	-$28.67	71% 7122-2863 (9985)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$9.92	$0.72	-$9.21	72% 13979-5358 (19337)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 14.4¢	$1.44	$0.6	-$0.85	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 87.4¢	$8.74	$0.6	-$8.15	42% 7028-9819 (16847)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$697.72

Value

$631.02

PnL

+$357.53

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

Both legs:

Yes$72.313.2¢+$441.2

No$369.3347.2¢-$83.67

RememberAmalek

Yes

Invested

$79.27

Value

$588.25

PnL

+$508.98

Record

56%

1018-799 (1817)

IstarothCTR

Invested

$284.14

Value

$281.84

PnL

-$1.92

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

Loyalty-Crash

Yes

Invested

$26

Value

$102.5

PnL

+$76.5

Record

66%

58-30 (88)

thanksforplayin<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.87

Value

$25.59

PnL

-$1.27

Record

56%

453-353 (806)

HaradwaithCTR

Invested

$133.7

Value

$16.66

PnL

-$117.04

Record

41%

6218-9125 (15343)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR

Invested

$131.71

Value

$8.59

PnL

-$123.12

Record

40%

285-429 (714)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$30.3

Value

$3.57

PnL

-$26.73

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$51.04

Value

$2.97

PnL

-$42.67

Record

53%

8228-7325 (15553)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Invested

$30.93

Value

$2.26

PnL

-$28.67

Record

71%

7122-2863 (9985)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$9.92

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$9.21

Record

72%

13979-5358 (19337)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$1.44

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$0.85

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$8.74

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$8.15

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

274h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.3%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$229.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

329.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.