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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Haradwaith | ndb1 | primm | UpTheBlues | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 40% (3382–5148, n=8530) | 63% (989–572, n=1561) | 50% (1105–1117, n=2222) | 50% (20849–20545, n=41394) |
| Consensus PnL | -$465K | $3.2M | $3.6M | $3.2M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #252 | PM monthly #104 | PM monthly #46 | PM monthly #7 |
| Sides with the consensus | 69% (402 of 579 open) | 72% (68 of 95 open) | no open consensus position | 70% (30 of 43 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Weather −6 pts, n=556 | NFL −9 pts, n=139 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 39% of 3845 at avg 42¢, ROI −2% | 64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 99% of 1013 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% | 100% of 38237 at avg 67¢, ROI +37% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 53% (won 3% of 2055) | 13% (won 15% of 168) | 5% (won 94% of 51) | 7% (won 99% of 2623) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 4% (won 35% of 170) | 20% (won 39% of 256) | 41% (won 99% of 412) | 21% (won 100% of 7839) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 5% (won 54% of 178) | 24% (won 58% of 314) | 50% (won 99% of 503) | 22% (won 100% of 8452) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 38% (won 89% of 1442) | 43% (won 93% of 550) | 5% (won 100% of 47) | 51% (won 100% of 19323) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
11 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.