Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Brentford finish in the top 6 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 40¢ · $1K held · ends Jun 14, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$1.3K
$418.71
25.3¢ → 39.5¢
+56% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
73h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probabilityCTR | Yesavg 21.4¢ | $388.28 | $682 | +$293.71 | 40% 1536-2269 (3805) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR | Yesavg 28.7¢ | $236.05 | $345.53 | +$96.95 | 43% 483-634 (1117) |
 extractive-manatee | Noavg 57¢ | $409.85 | $169.37 | +$29.9 | 34% 602-1160 (1762) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $83.99 | $79 | -$5 | 41% 6396-9374 (15770) |
ND ndb1<$100 | Noavg 55.3¢ | $43.1 | $45.2 | +$4.04 | 65% 958-515 (1473) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $8.43 | $7.53 | -$0.9 | 77% 12530-3845 (16375) |
probabilityCTRInvested
$388.28
Value
$682
PnL
+$293.71
Record
40%
1536-2269 (3805)
Invested
$236.05
Value
$345.53
PnL
+$96.95
Record
43%
483-634 (1117)
extractive-manateeInvested
$409.85
Value
$169.37
PnL
+$29.9
Record
34%
602-1160 (1762)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$83.99
Value
$79
PnL
-$5
Record
41%
6396-9374 (15770)
Invested
$43.1
Value
$45.2
PnL
+$4.04
Record
65%
958-515 (1473)
Invested
$8.43
Value
$7.53
PnL
-$0.9
Record
77%
12530-3845 (16375)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.