Will Spain win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 66¢ · $1K held · ends Jun 14, 2027

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Mon, Jun 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$38.62

Smart Money Entry

63.6¢ → 65.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,740

Combined PnL+$38.26

Yes2 traders

Total Value$43.36

Total Shares126

Combined PnL+$0.36

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

723h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
StudyPrediction	Noavg 64¢	$375.08	$383.81	+$8.72	53% 4640-4053 (8693)
P1 P1kaso	Noavg 62¢	$199.9	$212.8	+$11.28	63% 763-456 (1219)
DavidShekel	Noavg 73.4¢	$216.53	$190.65	-$18.02	58% 574-408 (982)
TimeTraveler	Noavg 54.5¢	$157.17	$189.13	+$31.99	41% 2002-2836 (4838)
ND ndb1	Noavg 63.9¢	$167.2	$171.48	+$4.28	66% 918-479 (1397)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.3¢	$42.71	$41.76	-$0.96	45% 13396-16320 (29716)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.2¢	$0.29	$1.6	+$1.32	43% 3030-3984 (7014)

StudyPrediction

Invested

$375.08

Value

$383.81

PnL

+$8.72

Record

53%

4640-4053 (8693)

P1kaso

Invested

$199.9

Value

$212.8

PnL

+$11.28

Record

63%

763-456 (1219)

DavidShekel

Invested

$216.53

Value

$190.65

PnL

-$18.02

Record

58%

574-408 (982)

TimeTraveler

Invested

$157.17

Value

$189.13

PnL

+$31.99

Record

41%

2002-2836 (4838)

ndb1

Invested

$167.2

Value

$171.48

PnL

+$4.28

Record

66%

918-479 (1397)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.71

Value

$41.76

PnL

-$0.96

Record

45%

13396-16320 (29716)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$1.32

Record

43%

3030-3984 (7014)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

723h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.