Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the Golden State Warriors make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 46¢ · $3K held
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$3.3K
-$143.06
46.2¢ → 45.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Late
480h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123CTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$150.03 | 52% 1578-1465 (3043) |
AN ancianoCTR | Yesavg 45.5¢ | $18.2 | $655.55 | -$82.24 | 52% 1154-1065 (2219) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 34.4¢ | $369.01 | $526.15 | +$119.57 | 41% 1997-2832 (4829) |
ND ndb1CTR | Yesavg 48.3¢ | $485.66 | $457.56 | -$28.1 | 66% 879-452 (1331) |
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 54¢ | $112.51 | $114.9 | +$2.39 | 66% 1108-565 (1673) |
 JustADonkCTR | Yesavg 48¢ | $100.27 | $95.61 | -$4.65 | 55% 910-753 (1663) |
Invested
$1,500.34
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$150.03
Record
52%
1578-1465 (3043)
Invested
$18.2
Value
$655.55
PnL
-$82.24
Record
52%
1154-1065 (2219)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$369.01
Value
$526.15
PnL
+$119.57
Record
41%
1997-2832 (4829)
Invested
$485.66
Value
$457.56
PnL
-$28.1
Record
66%
879-452 (1331)
DEGENKHANInvested
$112.51
Value
$114.9
PnL
+$2.39
Record
66%
1108-565 (1673)
JustADonkCTRInvested
$100.27
Value
$95.61
PnL
-$4.65
Record
55%
910-753 (1663)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.