Will Benfica win the 2026-27 Primeira Liga Championship?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 76¢ · $4K held · ends Jun 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 33%
$4.0K
$48.27
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE leegunner | Noavg 66.5¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$84.1 | 41% 1267-1798 (3065) |
 NooseracCTR | Yesavg 34¢ | $630.73 | $584.36 | -$46.38 | 52% 5688-5244 (10932) |
 crypto-basenjiCTR | Yesavg 29¢ | $92.88 | $103.44 | +$10.56 | 38% 165-272 (437) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.