Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankferrariChampions2026HomelessnHoelessRN1
Record (consensus markets)41% (589–853, n=1442)43% (11687–15248, n=26935)51% (136–129, n=265)48% (19424–21150, n=40574)
Consensus PnL$8.4M-$9.5M-$138K$14.9M
Tracked asPM monthly #1was PM monthly #87was PM monthly #597PM monthly #32 + pinned
Sides with the consensus88% (29 of 33 open)64% (7 of 11 open)77% (17 of 22 open)59% (17 of 29 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic——Esports −1 pts, n=240—
Settled positions, side won97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%100% of 5556 at avg 60¢, ROI +8%52% of 258 at avg 54¢, ROI −1%94% of 26124 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)4% (won 97% of 237)5% (won 17% of 12)10% (won 57% of 2594)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 212)26% (won 100% of 1446)34% (won 40% of 88)22% (won 94% of 5704)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 205)40% (won 100% of 2198)47% (won 57% of 120)35% (won 99% of 9204)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)30% (won 100% of 1675)15% (won 76% of 38)33% (won 100% of 8622)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

5 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankferrariChampions2026HomelessnHoelessRN1
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $1.2K—Over $1.7K
Chennai Open: Janice Tjen vs Magda Linette
same side · consensus Janice Tjen
—Janice Tjen $26K—Janice Tjen $16K
Matsuyama: Keisuke Saitoh vs Renta Tokuda
same side · consensus Keisuke Saitoh
—Keisuke Saitoh $38—Keisuke Saitoh $13K
USC Trojans vs. Wichita State Shockers
same side · consensus USC Trojans
—USC Trojans $1.1K—USC Trojans $3.7K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 0.5
same side · consensus Under
—Over $1.3K—Over $360
Brisbane 3: Alafia Ayeni vs Edward Winter
same side · consensus Edward Winter
—Alafia Ayeni $70—Alafia Ayeni $128