USC Trojans vs. Wichita State Shockers

12 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold USC Trojans (60%) · USC Trojans at 66¢ · $42K held · ended Nov 9

USC Trojans66¢Wichita State Shockers34¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

USC Trojans

Consensus Traders

USC Trojans 60%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$42.0K

Combined PnL

$748.34

Smart Money Entry

60.8¢ → 65.5¢

+8% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidUSC Trojans at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

USC Trojans

12 of 20 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

USC Trojans66%

Wichita State Shockers35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

USC Trojans12 traders

Total Value$28.8K

Total Shares41,137

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Wichita State Shockers8 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares20,520

Combined PnL$-1.0K

USC Trojans — 60%Wichita State Shockers — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	USC Trojansavg 65.1¢	$17.1K	$17.1K	+$40.33	46% 2054-2408 (4462)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	USC Trojansavg 64¢	$5.6K	$5.1K	-$470.62	50% 48656-48220 (96876)
└ USC Trojans leg	USC Trojansavg 64¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$78.6
└ Wichita State Shockers leg	Wichita State Shockersavg 45.7¢	$2.2K	$1.7K	-$549.22
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	USC Trojansavg 56.8¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$217.4	57% 17461-13292 (30753)
jodarCTR	Wichita State Shockersavg 35.1¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$131.12	58% 26-19 (45)
FL Flaznorp	USC Trojansavg 48.6¢	$1.8K	$2.4K	+$613.22	52% 47498-44700 (92198)
RN1	USC Trojansavg 65.2¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$45.05	53% 70327-61884 (132211)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Wichita State Shockersavg 45.6¢	$2.3K	$1.7K	-$546.91	56% 39470-31118 (70588)
RR rroosterCTR	Wichita State Shockersavg 52.3¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$190	63% 1400-824 (2224)
CI cigarettesCTR	Wichita State Shockersavg 33.2¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$8.09	50% 65525-65845 (131370)
A4 0xa466...1c77	USC Trojansavg 48.8¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	+$316.69	—
dips.	USC Trojansavg 46.9¢	$713.43	$994.58	+$281.15	46% 12241-14177 (26418)
OJ ojg	USC Trojansavg 53.4¢	$735.21	$897.79	+$162.58	51% 3973-3789 (7762)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	USC Trojansavg 59.4¢	$689.04	$396.64	+$43.48	48% 70392-76030 (146422)
└ USC Trojans leg	USC Trojansavg 59.4¢	$250.95	$281.02	+$44.37
└ Wichita State Shockers leg	Wichita State Shockersavg 42.4¢	$146.25	$115.62	-$0.89
MA MadridTimeCTR	Wichita State Shockersavg 45.1¢	$462.78	$343.8	-$118.99	47% 2196-2511 (4707)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	USC Trojansavg 44¢	$223.96	$333.4	+$109.44	53% 6654-5951 (12605)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Wichita State Shockersavg 45.3¢	$261.6	$220.38	-$41.22	47% 2266-2532 (4798)
└ Wichita State Shockers leg	Wichita State Shockersavg 45.3¢	$227.58	$173.22	-$54.36
└ USC Trojans leg	USC Trojansavg 47.2¢	$34.01	$47.16	+$13.15
OX oxe78sh4w98	USC Trojansavg 53¢	$161.99	$198.67	+$36.68	52% 697-634 (1331)
AV averagejoetraders	USC Trojansavg 52.2¢	$165.97	$169.94	+$3.97	54% 687-577 (1264)
VE VenusianCTR	Wichita State Shockersavg 40.6¢	$170.83	$145.11	-$25.72	47% 2268-2572 (4840)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	USC Trojansavg 57.9¢	$245.65	$144.13	+$24.87	52% 27371-24877 (52248)
└ USC Trojans leg	USC Trojansavg 57.9¢	$87.52	$100.58	+$20.94
└ Wichita State Shockers leg	Wichita State Shockersavg 39.2¢	$51	$43.55	+$3.93
LI Limousin<$100	USC Trojansavg 48.2¢	$72.28	$96.37	+$24.09	48% 2283-2446 (4729)
VeryLucky888<$100	USC Trojansavg 70¢	$15.4	$8.69	-$6.71	59% 52520-37212 (89732)
US User7429CTR<$100	Wichita State Shockersavg 54.2¢	$4.88	$3.2	-$1.69	56% 10339-8135 (18474)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Wichita State Shockersavg 29¢	$0.82	$1.7	+$0.89	46% 5660-6562 (12222)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

USC Trojans

Invested

$17,068.61

Value

$17.1K

PnL

+$40.33

Record

46%

2054-2408 (4462)

SnakeBallARB<$100

USC Trojans

Invested

$5,584.78

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$470.62

Record

50%

48656-48220 (96876)

Both legs:

USC Trojans$3,348.564¢+$78.6

Wichita State Shockers$2,236.2845.7¢-$549.22

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

USC Trojans

Invested

$3,303.76

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$217.4

Record

57%

17461-13292 (30753)

jodarCTR

Wichita State Shockers

Invested

$2,811.12

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$131.12

Record

58%

26-19 (45)

Flaznorp

USC Trojans

Invested

$1,788.34

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$613.22

Record

52%

47498-44700 (92198)

RN1

USC Trojans

Invested

$2,112.49

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$45.05

Record

53%

70327-61884 (132211)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Wichita State Shockers

Invested

$2,251.85

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$546.91

Record

56%

39470-31118 (70588)

rroosterCTR

Wichita State Shockers

Invested

$1,569.98

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$190

Record

63%

1400-824 (2224)

cigarettesCTR

Wichita State Shockers

Invested

$1,036.81

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$8.09

Record

50%

65525-65845 (131370)

0xa466...1c77

USC Trojans

Invested

$1,220.63

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$316.69

Record

—

dips.

USC Trojans

Invested

$713.43

Value

$994.58

PnL

+$281.15

Record

46%

12241-14177 (26418)

ojg

USC Trojans

Invested

$735.21

Value

$897.79

PnL

+$162.58

Record

51%

3973-3789 (7762)

38791873984189ARB<$100

USC Trojans

Invested

$689.04

Value

$396.64

PnL

+$43.48

Record

48%

70392-76030 (146422)

Both legs:

USC Trojans$250.9559.4¢+$44.37

Wichita State Shockers$146.2542.4¢-$0.89

MadridTimeCTR

Wichita State Shockers

Invested

$462.78

Value

$343.8

PnL

-$118.99

Record

47%

2196-2511 (4707)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

USC Trojans

Invested

$223.96

Value

$333.4

PnL

+$109.44

Record

53%

6654-5951 (12605)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Wichita State Shockers

Invested

$261.6

Value

$220.38

PnL

-$41.22

Record

47%

2266-2532 (4798)

Both legs:

Wichita State Shockers$227.5845.3¢-$54.36

USC Trojans$34.0147.2¢+$13.15

oxe78sh4w98

USC Trojans

Invested

$161.99

Value

$198.67

PnL

+$36.68

Record

52%

697-634 (1331)

averagejoetraders

USC Trojans

Invested

$165.97

Value

$169.94

PnL

+$3.97

Record

54%

687-577 (1264)

VenusianCTR

Wichita State Shockers

Invested

$170.83

Value

$145.11

PnL

-$25.72

Record

47%

2268-2572 (4840)

Pan9XARB<$100

USC Trojans

Invested

$245.65

Value

$144.13

PnL

+$24.87

Record

52%

27371-24877 (52248)

Both legs:

USC Trojans$87.5257.9¢+$20.94

Wichita State Shockers$5139.2¢+$3.93

Limousin<$100

USC Trojans

Invested

$72.28

Value

$96.37

PnL

+$24.09

Record

48%

2283-2446 (4729)

VeryLucky888<$100

USC Trojans

Invested

$15.4

Value

$8.69

PnL

-$6.71

Record

59%

52520-37212 (89732)

User7429CTR<$100

Wichita State Shockers

Invested

$4.88

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$1.69

Record

56%

10339-8135 (18474)

hi774cCTR<$100

Wichita State Shockers

Invested

$0.82

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0.89

Record

46%

5660-6562 (12222)

Research grade

AvoidUSC Trojans at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

USC Trojans

12 of 20 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that USC Trojans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.