Brisbane 3: Alafia Ayeni vs Edward Winter

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Edward Winter (59%) · Edward Winter at 56¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 16

Alafia Ayeni44¢Edward Winter56¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Edward Winter

Consensus Traders

Edward Winter 59%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

-$150.52

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 56.5¢

-4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralEdward Winter at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Edward Winter

10 of 17 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Alafia Ayeni44%

Edward Winter56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Edward Winter10 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares8,294

Combined PnL-$257.64

Alafia Ayeni7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,367

Combined PnL+$107.12

Edward Winter — 59%Alafia Ayeni — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Edward Winter. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEdward Winter 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrEdward Winter 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedEdward Winter 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Edward Winter 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Edward Winteravg 63.2¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$181.31	47% 2266-2532 (4798)
MA MadridTime	Edward Winteravg 57.3¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$78.05	47% 2196-2511 (4707)
VE Venusian	Edward Winteravg 54.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$44.31	47% 2268-2572 (4840)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Alafia Ayeniavg 43.8¢	$966.48	$881.56	-$84.92	48% 70392-76030 (146422)
└ Alafia Ayeni leg	Alafia Ayeniavg 43.8¢	$634.05	$572.15	-$61.9
└ Edward Winter leg	Edward Winteravg 65¢	$332.43	$309.41	-$23.01
TH thirdt1meCTR	Alafia Ayeniavg 43.6¢	$558.79	$497.1	+$58.03	58% 212-156 (368)
LI Limousin	Edward Winteravg 58.7¢	$490.55	$438.72	-$51.83	48% 2283-2446 (4729)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Alafia Ayeniavg 29¢	$241.91	$337.85	+$95.93	46% 2054-2408 (4462)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Alafia Ayeniavg 38¢	$228.28	$225	-$3.28	48% 216-238 (454)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Alafia Ayeniavg 38¢	$203.57	$208.45	+$4.88	52% 47498-44700 (92198)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Alafia Ayeniavg 39.9¢	$281.43	$171.53	+$3.6	53% 851-753 (1604)
└ Alafia Ayeni leg	Alafia Ayeniavg 39.9¢	$95.92	$94.97	+$11.29
└ Edward Winter leg	Edward Winteravg 66.6¢	$84.24	$76.56	-$7.68
RN1CTR	Alafia Ayeniavg 52¢	$137.12	$104.16	-$32.96	53% 70327-61884 (132211)
OJ ojgCTR	Alafia Ayeniavg 46¢	$109.98	$94.44	-$15.54	51% 3973-3789 (7762)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Edward Winteravg 61.8¢	$68.82	$65.46	-$3.36	53% 15545-13759 (29304)
└ Edward Winter leg	Edward Winteravg 61.8¢	$40.15	$36.73	-$3.42
└ Alafia Ayeni leg	Alafia Ayeniavg 43.4¢	$28.67	$28.73	+$0.06
TH thestingsnake<$100	Edward Winteravg 53¢	$66.5	$63.49	+$4.34	60% 4601-3105 (7706)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Edward Winteravg 58.1¢	$49.99	$52.03	+$2.04	57% 20238-15055 (35293)
machinelearned<$100	Edward Winteravg 54¢	$34.36	$36.3	+$1.94	54% 10229-8705 (18934)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Edward Winteravg 64¢	$33.87	$35.26	+$1.39	50% 23521-23532 (47053)
0xheavy888<$100	Edward Winteravg 66¢	$14.11	$13.36	-$0.75	56% 8802-6974 (15776)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Edward Winteravg 55¢	$1.77	$2.04	+$0.27	52% 6103-5604 (11707)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Alafia Ayeniavg 35¢	$0.54	$0.61	+$0.07	46% 33444-38932 (72376)

LightParadox

Edward Winter

Invested

$2,028.78

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$181.31

Record

47%

2266-2532 (4798)

MadridTime

Edward Winter

Invested

$1,252.46

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$78.05

Record

47%

2196-2511 (4707)

Venusian

Edward Winter

Invested

$1,066.14

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$44.31

Record

47%

2268-2572 (4840)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$966.48

Value

$881.56

PnL

-$84.92

Record

48%

70392-76030 (146422)

Both legs:

Alafia Ayeni$634.0543.8¢-$61.9

Edward Winter$332.4365¢-$23.01

thirdt1meCTR

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$558.79

Value

$497.1

PnL

+$58.03

Record

58%

212-156 (368)

Limousin

Edward Winter

Invested

$490.55

Value

$438.72

PnL

-$51.83

Record

48%

2283-2446 (4729)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$241.91

Value

$337.85

PnL

+$95.93

Record

46%

2054-2408 (4462)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$228.28

Value

$225

PnL

-$3.28

Record

48%

216-238 (454)

FlaznorpCTR

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$203.57

Value

$208.45

PnL

+$4.88

Record

52%

47498-44700 (92198)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$281.43

Value

$171.53

PnL

+$3.6

Record

53%

851-753 (1604)

Both legs:

Alafia Ayeni$95.9239.9¢+$11.29

Edward Winter$84.2466.6¢-$7.68

RN1CTR

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$137.12

Value

$104.16

PnL

-$32.96

Record

53%

70327-61884 (132211)

ojgCTR

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$109.98

Value

$94.44

PnL

-$15.54

Record

51%

3973-3789 (7762)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Edward Winter

Invested

$68.82

Value

$65.46

PnL

-$3.36

Record

53%

15545-13759 (29304)

Both legs:

Edward Winter$40.1561.8¢-$3.42

Alafia Ayeni$28.6743.4¢+$0.06

thestingsnake<$100

Edward Winter

Invested

$66.5

Value

$63.49

PnL

+$4.34

Record

60%

4601-3105 (7706)

BillBenter2026<$100

Edward Winter

Invested

$49.99

Value

$52.03

PnL

+$2.04

Record

57%

20238-15055 (35293)

machinelearned<$100

Edward Winter

Invested

$34.36

Value

$36.3

PnL

+$1.94

Record

54%

10229-8705 (18934)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Edward Winter

Invested

$33.87

Value

$35.26

PnL

+$1.39

Record

50%

23521-23532 (47053)

0xheavy888<$100

Edward Winter

Invested

$14.11

Value

$13.36

PnL

-$0.75

Record

56%

8802-6974 (15776)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Edward Winter

Invested

$1.77

Value

$2.04

PnL

+$0.27

Record

52%

6103-5604 (11707)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.61

PnL

+$0.07

Record

46%

33444-38932 (72376)

Research grade

NeutralEdward Winter at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Edward Winter

10 of 17 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Edward Winter. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEdward Winter 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrEdward Winter 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedEdward Winter 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Edward Winter 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Edward Winter wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.