Known as ShadowRealms since Nov 6 2026 · Previously known as: ShadowRealms (Oct 22 – Nov 6 2026)
Consensus PnL -$62K · win rate 52% (132–123, n=255) · was PM monthly #597 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-62.4K
Record
132W / 123L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 255 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1089
Source
PM monthly #597
Record (90 d)
131/250 · 52%
Trades
6,006
Markets
256
Volume
$2.8M
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Specialties
244 settled consensus markets · held side won 52% at an average entry of 54¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where ShadowRealms's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Esports — held side won 54% of 226 at an average 54¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 17% of 12)
- 30–50¢: 34%(won 41% of 82)
- 50–70¢: 48%(won 57% of 118)
- 70¢ and up: 13%(won 75% of 32)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.