Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankferrariChampions2026FlaznorpHugolinoXavier
Record (consensus markets)95% (310–15, n=325)32% (12–26, n=38)49% (33–34, n=67)no settled market
Consensus PnL$8.4M-$22K$35K—
Tracked asPM monthly #1was PM monthly #87PM monthly #14PM monthly #670
Sides with the consensus84% (32 of 38 open)56% (5 of 9 open)69% (176 of 254 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
Weakest topic——NFL −24 pts, n=12Geopolitics −2 pts, n=10
Settled positions, side won97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%100% of 5556 at avg 60¢, ROI +8%56% of 3115 at avg 55¢, ROI +22%36% of 33 at avg 28¢, ROI +10%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)4% (won 97% of 237)30% (won 9% of 919)55% (won 17% of 18)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 212)26% (won 100% of 1446)15% (won 37% of 455)33% (won 55% of 11)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 205)40% (won 100% of 2198)14% (won 63% of 439)9% (won 67% of 3)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)30% (won 100% of 1675)42% (won 94% of 1302)3% (won 100% of 1)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankferrariChampions2026FlaznorpHugolinoXavier
Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Over $8.1KUnder $3—
Matsuyama: Billy Harris vs Liam Broady
opposite sides · consensus Billy Harris
—Liam Broady $2.0KBilly Harris $1.7K—
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $147Yes $2.7K—
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)
opposite sides · consensus Hornets
—Cavaliers $1.6KHornets $162—
Bills vs. Vikings
same side · consensus Bills
Bills $217K—Bills $77—
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $1.2KUnder $12K—
Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5
same side · consensus Under
—Over $5.7KOver $86—