Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Hornets, while the market favors Cavaliers (51%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (88%) · Hornets at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Hornets
8
Hornets 88%
$2.0K
-$67.33
51.5¢ → 49.5¢
-4% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidHornets at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Cavaliers 51%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Hornetsavg 51.8¢ | $3.2K | $1.6K | -$73.61 | 54% 20066-16931 (36997) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Hornetsavg 49¢ | $328 | $162.36 | +$1.64 | 52% 47498-44700 (92198) |
SN SnakeBall | Cavaliersavg 48.7¢ | $230.58 | $116.44 | +$4.16 | 50% 48656-48220 (96876) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Hornetsavg 49¢ | $49.11 | $49.62 | +$0.5 | 50% 27997-27469 (55466) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Hornetsavg 49¢ | $12.25 | $12.38 | +$0.13 | 52% 27371-24877 (52248) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Hornetsavg 49¢ | $7.84 | $7.92 | +$0.08 | 48% 70392-76030 (146422) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Hornetsavg 53¢ | $5 | $2.48 | -$0.18 | 52% 9544-8673 (18217) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Hornetsavg 52¢ | $1.08 | $1.03 | -$0.05 | 56% 8802-6974 (15776) |
Invested
$3,236.52
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$73.61
Record
54%
20066-16931 (36997)
Invested
$328
Value
$162.36
PnL
+$1.64
Record
52%
47498-44700 (92198)
Invested
$230.58
Value
$116.44
PnL
+$4.16
Record
50%
48656-48220 (96876)
Invested
$49.11
Value
$49.62
PnL
+$0.5
Record
50%
27997-27469 (55466)
Invested
$12.25
Value
$12.38
PnL
+$0.13
Record
52%
27371-24877 (52248)
Invested
$7.84
Value
$7.92
PnL
+$0.08
Record
48%
70392-76030 (146422)
Invested
$5
Value
$2.48
PnL
-$0.18
Record
52%
9544-8673 (18217)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.03
PnL
-$0.05
Record
56%
8802-6974 (15776)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.