Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 47¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 10

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.9K

Combined PnL

-$38.27

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 46.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares19,949

Combined PnL-$81.15

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares8,841

Combined PnL+$42.88

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 52.9¢	$17.8K	$10.9K	+$102.73	54% 20342-17178 (37520)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.9¢	$7.9K	$8.0K	+$90.41
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.6¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	+$12.31
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 47¢	$17.3K	$8.1K	-$86.63	46% 33781-39456 (73237)
MA MAGATheeStallion	Underavg 52.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$33.94	57% 294-218 (512)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 46.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$6.24	51% 28858-28213 (57071)
nigiri99	Underavg 53.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$2.47	45% 14909-18248 (33157)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 53¢	$522.82	$279.71	+$2.61	50% 49324-48846 (98170)
NM NM-P	Underavg 52.9¢	$373.53	$199.84	+$2.1	57% 22821-16910 (39731)
GC GC-P	Underavg 53¢	$350	$187.25	+$1.75	57% 22672-16911 (39583)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$29.76	$28.83	-$0.93	48% 176-188 (364)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 47.5¢	$29.33	$28.79	-$0.54	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$8.48	$9.17	+$0.69	45% 2826-3461 (6287)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$6.95	$6.98	+$0.03	53% 14841-13046 (27887)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$17,842.58

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$102.73

Record

54%

20342-17178 (37520)

Both legs:

Under$7,897.7452.9¢+$90.41

Over$2,994.1547.6¢+$12.31

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$17,330.18

Value

$8.1K

PnL

-$86.63

Record

46%

33781-39456 (73237)

MAGATheeStallion

Under

Invested

$2,999.79

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$33.94

Record

57%

294-218 (512)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$1,140.65

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$6.24

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,026.87

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$2.47

Record

45%

14909-18248 (33157)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$522.82

Value

$279.71

PnL

+$2.61

Record

50%

49324-48846 (98170)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$373.53

Value

$199.84

PnL

+$2.1

Record

57%

22821-16910 (39731)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$350

Value

$187.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

57%

22672-16911 (39583)

biying99999CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.76

Value

$28.83

PnL

-$0.93

Record

48%

176-188 (364)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.33

Value

$28.79

PnL

-$0.54

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.48

Value

$9.17

PnL

+$0.69

Record

45%

2826-3461 (6287)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.95

Value

$6.98

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

14841-13046 (27887)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.