Bills vs. Vikings

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (25%) · Bills at 63¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 10

Bills63¢Vikings37¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bills

Consensus Traders

Bills 25%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.5K

Combined PnL

$2.54

Smart Money Entry

62.8¢ → 62.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBills at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

3 of 12 top traders (25%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bills63%

Vikings38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills3 traders

Total Value$16.1K

Total Shares25,884

Combined PnL-$77.16

Vikings9 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares8,688

Combined PnL+$79.7

Bills — 25%Vikings — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

64h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVikings 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpVikings 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrVikings 73% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000Vikings 75% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Billsavg 62.8¢	$15.2K	$15.0K	-$84.09	53% 661-579 (1240)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Vikingsavg 36.3¢	$10.6K	$10.7K	+$241.56	54% 18312-15410 (33722)
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 36.3¢	$7.4K	$7.7K	+$314.1
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 64.7¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	-$72.54
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Vikingsavg 36¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$70.9	49% 441-465 (906)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Billsavg 63¢	$995	$1.0K	+$5	64% 10073-5631 (15704)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 63¢	$630	$625	-$5
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 36.5¢	$364.9	$375	+$10
DA darkumbreon88	Billsavg 62¢	$989.07	$997.05	+$7.98	64% 2015-1119 (3134)
OD OddstormCTR	Vikingsavg 38.7¢	$521.74	$500.14	-$16.19	48% 7427-7962 (15389)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Billsavg 63¢	$495	$497.5	+$5	64% 10095-5700 (15795)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 63¢	$315	$310	-$2.5
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 36¢	$180	$187.5	+$7.5
SN SnakeBallCTR	Vikingsavg 36¢	$429.03	$446.91	+$17.88	50% 37993-37250 (75243)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Vikingsavg 38.7¢	$243.45	$235.86	-$3.14	54% 1235-1049 (2284)
38 38791873984189CTR	Vikingsavg 36¢	$128.11	$133.37	+$5.25	48% 61956-66813 (128769)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 36.1¢	$91.79	$95.44	+$3.66	51% 3835-3755 (7590)
RL RLWG<$100	Billsavg 64¢	$47.99	$43.39	-$1.05	50% 8365-8424 (16789)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 36.1¢	$15.2	$15.68	+$0.48	54% 10107-8484 (18591)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 36.7¢	$12.96	$13.25	+$0.53	49% 265-276 (541)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 35¢	$4.69	$5.03	+$0.34	53% 12543-11257 (23800)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Bills

Invested

$15,220.97

Value

$15.0K

PnL

-$84.09

Record

53%

661-579 (1240)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Vikings

Invested

$10,574.9

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$241.56

Record

54%

18312-15410 (33722)

Both legs:

Vikings$7,423.7836.3¢+$314.1

Bills$3,151.1164.7¢-$72.54

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Vikings

Invested

$1,741.39

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$70.9

Record

49%

441-465 (906)

NM-PARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$995

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$5

Record

64%

10073-5631 (15704)

Both legs:

Bills$63063¢-$5

Vikings$364.936.5¢+$10

darkumbreon88

Bills

Invested

$989.07

Value

$997.05

PnL

+$7.98

Record

64%

2015-1119 (3134)

OddstormCTR

Vikings

Invested

$521.74

Value

$500.14

PnL

-$16.19

Record

48%

7427-7962 (15389)

GC-PARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$495

Value

$497.5

PnL

+$5

Record

64%

10095-5700 (15795)

Both legs:

Invested

$429.03

Value

$446.91

PnL

+$17.88

Record

50%

37993-37250 (75243)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Vikings

Invested

$243.45

Value

$235.86

PnL

-$3.14

Record

54%

1235-1049 (2284)

38791873984189CTR

Vikings

Invested

$128.11

Value

$133.37

PnL

+$5.25

Record

48%

61956-66813 (128769)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$91.79

Value

$95.44

PnL

+$3.66

Record

51%

3835-3755 (7590)

RLWG<$100

Bills

Invested

$47.99

Value

$43.39

PnL

-$1.05

Record

50%

8365-8424 (16789)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$15.2

Value

$15.68

PnL

+$0.48

Record

54%

10107-8484 (18591)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$12.96

Value

$13.25

PnL

+$0.53

Record

49%

265-276 (541)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$4.69

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$0.34

Record

53%

12543-11257 (23800)

Research grade

NeutralBills at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

3 of 12 top traders (25%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

64h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVikings 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpVikings 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrVikings 73% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000Vikings 75% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bills wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.