Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 56¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 10

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

Total Value

$15.8K

Combined PnL

-$28.46

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 56.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares16,400

Combined PnL-$462.08

Under3 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares15,386

Combined PnL+$433.62

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 46.4¢	$13.3K	$5.8K	-$381.05	46% 33781-39456 (73237)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 53.5¢	$9.5K	$5.4K	+$285.34	54% 20342-17178 (37520)
HI hi774c	Underavg 54¢	$3.7K	$2.1K	+$91.99	46% 5712-6614 (12326)
nigiri99	Underavg 53.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$56.29	45% 14909-18248 (33157)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 46.3¢	$943.76	$887.18	-$56.58	51% 28858-28213 (57071)
73 739633786CTR	Overavg 47¢	$338.4	$313.2	-$25.2	44% 452-565 (1017)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$87.74	$87.87	+$0.13	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$53.64	$54.27	+$0.62	58% 53852-38329 (92181)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$13,314.06

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$381.05

Record

46%

33781-39456 (73237)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$9,504.63

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$285.34

Record

54%

20342-17178 (37520)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$3,679.62

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$91.99

Record

46%

5712-6614 (12326)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,191.23

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$56.29

Record

45%

14909-18248 (33157)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$943.76

Value

$887.18

PnL

-$56.58

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

739633786CTR

Over

Invested

$338.4

Value

$313.2

PnL

-$25.2

Record

44%

452-565 (1017)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$87.74

Value

$87.87

PnL

+$0.13

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53.64

Value

$54.27

PnL

+$0.62

Record

58%

53852-38329 (92181)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.