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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankduratio12ferrariChampions2026Flaznorp
Record (consensus markets)41% (589–853, n=1442)44% (25–32, n=57)43% (11687–15248, n=26935)55% (13164–10557, n=23721)
Consensus PnL$8.4M$8.3K-$9.5M$1.9M
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #869was PM monthly #87PM monthly #14
Sides with the consensus88% (29 of 33 open)no open consensus position56% (5 of 9 open)71% (88 of 124 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
  • Tennis +13 pts n=52, ROI +24%
  • NHL +9 pts n=58, ROI +14%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topic———Other Sports −28 pts, n=15
Settled positions, side won97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%57% of 54 at avg 50¢, ROI 0%100% of 5556 at avg 60¢, ROI +8%56% of 1398 at avg 54¢, ROI +28%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)19% (won 10% of 10)4% (won 97% of 237)29% (won 11% of 403)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 212)35% (won 47% of 19)26% (won 100% of 1446)16% (won 38% of 228)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 205)22% (won 75% of 12)40% (won 100% of 2198)15% (won 62% of 214)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)24% (won 92% of 13)30% (won 100% of 1675)40% (won 94% of 553)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankduratio12ferrariChampions2026Flaznorp
Brisbane 3: Alafia Ayeni vs Edward Winter
opposite sides · consensus Edward Winter
——Alafia Ayeni $234Edward Winter $4.6K
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $148Yes $2.7K
Matsuyama: Joel Schwaerzler vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong
opposite sides · consensus Joel Schwaerzler
——Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong $12Joel Schwaerzler $2.3K
Matsuyama: Keegan Smith vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu
opposite sides · consensus Yu-Hsiou Hsu
——Yu-Hsiou Hsu $299Keegan Smith $185
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
same side · consensus Under
——Under $1.2KUnder $13K
Matsuyama: Keisuke Saitoh vs Renta Tokuda
same side · consensus Keisuke Saitoh
——Keisuke Saitoh $38Keisuke Saitoh $1.6K
Matsuyama: Billy Harris vs Liam Broady
same side · consensus Billy Harris
——Liam Broady $355Liam Broady $325