Matsuyama: Keegan Smith vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yu-Hsiou Hsu (58%) · Yu-Hsiou Hsu at 76¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 16

Keegan Smith25¢Yu-Hsiou Hsu75¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Consensus Traders

Yu-Hsiou Hsu 58%

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

67.8¢ → 75.5¢

+11% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYu-Hsiou Hsu at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Keegan Smith25%

Yu-Hsiou Hsu76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yu-Hsiou Hsu7 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares12,587

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Keegan Smith5 traders

Total Value$862.95

Total Shares2,269

Combined PnL+$230.84

Yu-Hsiou Hsu — 58%Keegan Smith — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 67.6¢	$4.8K	$3.5K	$-1.3K	47% 2266-2532 (4798)
VE Venusian	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 67.4¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$130.32	47% 2268-2572 (4840)
MA MadridTime	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 78.4¢	$1.6K	$1.0K	-$537.68	47% 2196-2511 (4707)
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR	Keegan Smithavg 24.9¢	$249.12	$505	+$255.88	39% 446-705 (1151)
0xheavy888	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 47¢	$356.08	$375.02	+$18.94	56% 8802-6974 (15776)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Keegan Smithavg 28.8¢	$369.66	$306.67	-$16	58% 212-156 (368)
LI Limousin	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 69.3¢	$363.3	$259.45	-$103.86	48% 2283-2446 (4729)
TH thestingsnake	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 74.5¢	$145.51	$145.44	-$0.07	60% 4601-3105 (7706)
UB ubetteruuuu<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 45.2¢	$81.42	$89.1	+$7.68	48% 216-238 (454)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Keegan Smithavg 53.2¢	$26.57	$25.2	-$1.37	50% 23521-23532 (47053)
1L 1lovejumpCTR<$100	Keegan Smithavg 27.4¢	$45.7	$16.97	-$4.73	53% 851-753 (1604)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Keegan Smithavg 32.4¢	$12.04	$9.11	-$2.94	52% 47498-44700 (92198)

LightParadox

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$4,826.01

Value

$3.5K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

47%

2266-2532 (4798)

Venusian

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$1,230.64

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$130.32

Record

47%

2268-2572 (4840)

MadridTime

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$1,585.11

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$537.68

Record

47%

2196-2511 (4707)

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR

Keegan Smith

Invested

$249.12

Value

$505

PnL

+$255.88

Record

39%

446-705 (1151)

0xheavy888

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$356.08

Value

$375.02

PnL

+$18.94

Record

56%

8802-6974 (15776)

thirdt1meCTR

Keegan Smith

Invested

$369.66

Value

$306.67

PnL

-$16

Record

58%

212-156 (368)

Limousin

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$363.3

Value

$259.45

PnL

-$103.86

Record

48%

2283-2446 (4729)

thestingsnake

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$145.51

Value

$145.44

PnL

-$0.07

Record

60%

4601-3105 (7706)

ubetteruuuu<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$81.42

Value

$89.1

PnL

+$7.68

Record

48%

216-238 (454)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Keegan Smith

Invested

$26.57

Value

$25.2

PnL

-$1.37

Record

50%

23521-23532 (47053)

1lovejumpCTR<$100

Keegan Smith

Invested

$45.7

Value

$16.97

PnL

-$4.73

Record

53%

851-753 (1604)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Keegan Smith

Invested

$12.04

Value

$9.11

PnL

-$2.94

Record

52%

47498-44700 (92198)

Research grade

NeutralYu-Hsiou Hsu at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yu-Hsiou Hsu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.