Matsuyama: Joel Schwaerzler vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Joel Schwaerzler (55%) · Joel Schwaerzler at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16

Joel Schwaerzler98¢Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong2¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Joel Schwaerzler

Consensus Traders

Joel Schwaerzler 55%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

89¢ → 97.6¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralJoel Schwaerzler at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Joel Schwaerzler

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Joel Schwaerzler98%

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Joel Schwaerzler6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,311

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong5 traders

Total Value$260.76

Total Shares555

Combined PnL+$99.06

Joel Schwaerzler — 55%Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Joel Schwaerzleravg 90.6¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	-$887.36	52% 47498-44700 (92198)
VE VenusianCTR	Mitsuki Wei Kang Leongavg 15.6¢	$67.65	$216.3	+$148.65	47% 2268-2572 (4840)
LI Limousin	Joel Schwaerzleravg 88.7¢	$341.01	$192.23	-$148.78	48% 2283-2446 (4729)
PA Paul973973	Joel Schwaerzleravg 88.5¢	$301.8	$170.45	-$131.35	89% 1109-143 (1252)
TRCM	Joel Schwaerzleravg 84.7¢	$158.51	$93.61	-$64.91	55% 4123-3323 (7446)
OM omnibus-076daa	Joel Schwaerzleravg 78.7¢	$131.39	$83.51	-$47.89	50% 23521-23532 (47053)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Mitsuki Wei Kang Leongavg 18.5¢	$234.16	$26.02	-$57.14	56% 1973-1533 (3506)
VeryLucky888<$100	Joel Schwaerzleravg 74¢	$32.49	$21.96	-$10.53	59% 52520-37212 (89732)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Mitsuki Wei Kang Leongavg 25¢	$8.5	$17	+$8.5	52% 27371-24877 (52248)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Mitsuki Wei Kang Leongavg 6.3¢	$2.19	$0.84	-$1.35	47% 2266-2532 (4798)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Mitsuki Wei Kang Leongavg 17¢	$0.2	$0.6	+$0.4	52% 6103-5604 (11707)

Flaznorp

Joel Schwaerzler

Invested

$1,980.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$887.36

Record

52%

47498-44700 (92198)

VenusianCTR

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Invested

$67.65

Value

$216.3

PnL

+$148.65

Record

47%

2268-2572 (4840)

Limousin

Joel Schwaerzler

Invested

$341.01

Value

$192.23

PnL

-$148.78

Record

48%

2283-2446 (4729)

Paul973973

Joel Schwaerzler

Invested

$301.8

Value

$170.45

PnL

-$131.35

Record

89%

1109-143 (1252)

TRCM

Joel Schwaerzler

Invested

$158.51

Value

$93.61

PnL

-$64.91

Record

55%

4123-3323 (7446)

omnibus-076daa

Joel Schwaerzler

Invested

$131.39

Value

$83.51

PnL

-$47.89

Record

50%

23521-23532 (47053)

SchruteBucksCTR

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Invested

$234.16

Value

$26.02

PnL

-$57.14

Record

56%

1973-1533 (3506)

VeryLucky888<$100

Joel Schwaerzler

Invested

$32.49

Value

$21.96

PnL

-$10.53

Record

59%

52520-37212 (89732)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Invested

$8.5

Value

$17

PnL

+$8.5

Record

52%

27371-24877 (52248)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Invested

$2.19

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$1.35

Record

47%

2266-2532 (4798)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$0.4

Record

52%

6103-5604 (11707)

Research grade

NeutralJoel Schwaerzler at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Joel Schwaerzler

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Joel Schwaerzler wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.