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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | RN1 | twe2nty | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (573–710, n=1283) | 47% (13886–15398, n=29284) | 75% (191–65, n=256) |
| Consensus PnL | $9.4M | $14.8M | -$16K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #3 | PM monthly #29 + pinned | was PM monthly #956 |
| Sides with the consensus | 68% (23 of 34 open) | 57% (16 of 28 open) | 73% (29 of 40 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | Geopolitics −5 pts, n=118 |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% | 71% of 246 at avg 72¢, ROI 0% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 11% (won 80% of 61) | 10% (won 57% of 2538) | 21% (won 4% of 52) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 35% (won 98% of 203) | 22% (won 94% of 5565) | 5% (won 8% of 13) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 100% of 201) | 36% (won 99% of 9017) | 4% (won 60% of 10) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 20% (won 100% of 115) | 33% (won 100% of 8250) | 70% (won 96% of 171) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BreakTheBank | RN1 | twe2nty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $88K | — | Yes $14K |