Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankMulticoloured-SerfRN1sainttroplay
Record (consensus markets)45% (547–663, n=1210)48% (217–237, n=454)47% (14377–16003, n=30380)71% (10–4, n=14)
Consensus PnL$11.0M-$64K$14.8M$4.4M
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #24PM monthly #22 + pinnedwas PM monthly #11
Sides with the consensus51% (58 of 113 open)42% (11 of 26 open)57% (47 of 82 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%100% of 178 at avg 52¢, ROI +50%94% of 25801 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 81% of 57)0%10% (won 57% of 2606)0%
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 201)47% (won 100% of 83)22% (won 94% of 5665)50% (won 100% of 5)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 99% of 196)46% (won 100% of 82)36% (won 99% of 9185)50% (won 100% of 5)
Entries 70¢ and up19% (won 100% of 109)7% (won 100% of 13)32% (won 100% of 8345)0%

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

7 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankMulticoloured-SerfRN1sainttroplay
Jets vs. Canadiens
same side · consensus Jets
—Jets $60KJets $393—
Spread: Ohio (-13.5)
same side · consensus Ohio
—Akron $28KAkron $563—
Utah vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5
same side · consensus Over
—Under $8.9KUnder $204—
Utah vs. Maple Leafs
same side · consensus Maple Leafs
—Utah $7.7KUtah $678—
Spread: Ohio (-6.5)
same side · consensus Akron
—Ohio $70Ohio $2.4K—
Stars vs. Capitals
same side · consensus Stars
—Stars $511Stars $118—
CD Tenerife vs. FC Andorra: O/U 2.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $17Under $353—