Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Stars, while the market favors Capitals (52%). 6 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Stars vs. Capitals

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Stars (38%) · Stars at 49¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 4

Stars49¢Capitals51¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Stars

Consensus Traders

Stars 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.5K

Combined PnL

-$4.53

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 48.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralStars at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Stars

6 of 16 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Capitals 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Stars49%

Capitals52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Stars6 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares26,999

Combined PnL-$42.62

Capitals10 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares8,491

Combined PnL+$38.09

Stars — 38%Capitals — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Stars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Capitals) and the top 1000 (12 on Stars) disagree here.

whaleCapitals 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrStars 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedCapitals 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Stars 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Starsavg 49¢	$5.1K	$5.0K	-$47.52	46% 8245-9621 (17866)
BA BabooouCTR	Starsavg 50¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$0	51% 224-211 (435)
GA gagarin59ARB<$100	Starsavg 49¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$15.51	51% 766-737 (1503)
└ Stars leg	Starsavg 49¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$20.41
└ Capitals leg	Capitalsavg 51¢	$499.8	$504.7	+$4.9
RO royalestakeCTR	Starsavg 50¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$0	47% 392-445 (837)
RO roldyCTR	Starsavg 48¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$13.92	51% 1437-1364 (2801)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Starsavg 49¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$4.47	51% 3571-3496 (7067)
└ Stars leg	Starsavg 49¢	$777.65	$785.59	+$7.94
└ Capitals leg	Capitalsavg 50¢	$346.08	$349.54	-$3.46
VeryLucky888	Capitalsavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
0X 0x8efa1ea8ee2d456a051ae2985079a1e3c9aa894c	Capitalsavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10	46% 859-998 (1857)
0xheavy888	Capitalsavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$11.92	55% 7598-6093 (13691)
fyrsken	Capitalsavg 50¢	$500	$500	-$5	49% 310-329 (639)
SE sentrio	Capitalsavg 50.7¢	$485.22	$492.55	+$7.33	50% 25247-24961 (50208)
38 38791873984189CTR	Starsavg 49¢	$270.97	$268.2	-$2.76	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Starsavg 51.2¢	$256.25	$250	-$6.25	42% 1087-1487 (2574)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Capitalsavg 51¢	$203.99	$205.99	+$2	51% 1717-1639 (3356)
CO cocococococo	Capitalsavg 49¢	$114.78	$117.12	+$1.17	52% 1671-1542 (3213)
JO jole24<$100	Capitalsavg 51¢	$55.76	$56.31	+$0.55	44% 1043-1310 (2353)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Capitalsavg 51¢	$5	$5	+$0.1	52% 8455-7711 (16166)
GH ghorrock<$100	Capitalsavg 49¢	$0.96	$0.98	+$0.02	58% 18597-13721 (32318)

nigiri99CTR

Stars

Invested

$5,090.39

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$47.52

Record

46%

8245-9621 (17866)

BabooouCTR

Stars

Invested

$4,500

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

224-211 (435)

gagarin59ARB<$100

Stars

Invested

$2,499.98

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$15.51

Record

51%

766-737 (1503)

Both legs:

Stars$2,000.1849¢-$20.41

Capitals$499.851¢+$4.9

royalestakeCTR

Stars

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

392-445 (837)

roldyCTR

Stars

Invested

$1,335.91

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.92

Record

51%

1437-1364 (2801)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Stars

Invested

$1,123.73

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$4.47

Record

51%

3571-3496 (7067)

Both legs:

Stars$777.6549¢+$7.94

Capitals$346.0850¢-$3.46

VeryLucky888

Capitals

Invested

$1,020

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

0x8efa1ea8ee2d456a051ae2985079a1e3c9aa894c

Capitals

Invested

$1,020

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10

Record

46%

859-998 (1857)

0xheavy888

Capitals

Invested

$1,008.06

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$11.92

Record

55%

7598-6093 (13691)

fyrsken

Capitals

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

-$5

Record

49%

310-329 (639)

sentrio

Capitals

Invested

$485.22

Value

$492.55

PnL

+$7.33

Record

50%

25247-24961 (50208)

38791873984189CTR

Stars

Invested

$270.97

Value

$268.2

PnL

-$2.76

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Stars

Invested

$256.25

Value

$250

PnL

-$6.25

Record

42%

1087-1487 (2574)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Capitals

Invested

$203.99

Value

$205.99

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

1717-1639 (3356)

cocococococo

Capitals

Invested

$114.78

Value

$117.12

PnL

+$1.17

Record

52%

1671-1542 (3213)

jole24<$100

Capitals

Invested

$55.76

Value

$56.31

PnL

+$0.55

Record

44%

1043-1310 (2353)

ameisgoat11<$100

Capitals

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

8455-7711 (16166)

ghorrock<$100

Capitals

Invested

$0.96

Value

$0.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

Research grade

NeutralStars at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Stars

6 of 16 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Capitals 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Stars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Capitals) and the top 1000 (12 on Stars) disagree here.

whaleCapitals 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrStars 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedCapitals 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Stars 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Stars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.