Jets vs. Canadiens

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Canadiens (43%) · Canadiens at 64¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Jets37¢Canadiens63¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Canadiens

Consensus Traders

Canadiens 43%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$11.93

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 63.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralCanadiens at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Canadiens

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jets37%

Canadiens64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Canadiens3 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,960

Combined PnL+$35.01

Jets4 traders

Total Value$611.02

Total Shares1,744

Combined PnL-$23.09

Canadiens — 43%Jets — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Canadiens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Canadiens) and the top 1000 (6 on Jets) disagree here.

ctrJets 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedCanadiens 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jets 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO cocococococo	Canadiensavg 61¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$36.72	52% 1668-1539 (3207)
OM omnibus-076daa	Canadiensavg 63.6¢	$918.03	$916.77	-$1.26	50% 19812-20152 (39964)
fyrskenCTR	Jetsavg 39¢	$586.86	$526.76	-$22.47	48% 301-322 (623)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Jetsavg 35¢	$53.48	$53.48	-$0	47% 12972-14546 (27518)
IW iWasEnough<$100	Canadiensavg 64.1¢	$44.07	$43.63	-$0.44	53% 8070-7281 (15351)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Jetsavg 37.7¢	$17.08	$15.85	-$1.23	57% 17234-12896 (30130)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Jetsavg 35¢	$14.32	$14.93	+$0.61	54% 11661-10125 (21786)

cocococococo

Canadiens

Invested

$1,493.14

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$36.72

Record

52%

1668-1539 (3207)

omnibus-076daa

Canadiens

Invested

$918.03

Value

$916.77

PnL

-$1.26

Record

50%

19812-20152 (39964)

fyrskenCTR

Jets

Invested

$586.86

Value

$526.76

PnL

-$22.47

Record

48%

301-322 (623)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$53.48

Value

$53.48

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

12972-14546 (27518)

iWasEnough<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$44.07

Value

$43.63

PnL

-$0.44

Record

53%

8070-7281 (15351)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$17.08

Value

$15.85

PnL

-$1.23

Record

57%

17234-12896 (30130)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$14.32

Value

$14.93

PnL

+$0.61

Record

54%

11661-10125 (21786)

Research grade

NeutralCanadiens at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Canadiens

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Canadiens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Canadiens) and the top 1000 (6 on Jets) disagree here.

ctrJets 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedCanadiens 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jets 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Canadiens wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.