Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Maple Leafs, while the market favors Utah (57%). 15 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Utah vs. Maple Leafs

15 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Maple Leafs (79%) · Maple Leafs at 43¢ · $37K held · ends Nov 4

Utah57¢Maple Leafs43¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Maple Leafs

Consensus Traders

Maple Leafs 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.0K

Combined PnL

-$340.91

Smart Money Entry

43.7¢ → 42.5¢

-3% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralMaple Leafs at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maple Leafs

15 of 19 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Utah 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Utah57%

Maple Leafs43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maple Leafs15 traders

Total Value$23.8K

Total Shares55,594

Combined PnL-$354.63

Utah4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,321

Combined PnL+$13.72

Maple Leafs — 79%Utah — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Maple Leafs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Utah) and the top 1000 (8 on Maple Leafs) disagree here.

whaleUtah 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrMaple Leafs 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUtah 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Maple Leafs 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99ARB<$100	Maple Leafsavg 43.2¢	$10.9K	$10.8K	-$76.39	46% 8245-9621 (17866)
└ Maple Leafs leg	Maple Leafsavg 43.2¢	$6.0K	$5.9K	-$99.48
└ Utah leg	Utahavg 57.2¢	$4.9K	$4.9K	+$23.08
PA para-VisionCTR	Maple Leafsavg 43¢	$6.5K	$6.4K	-$75	56% 229-182 (411)
RO royalestakeCTR	Maple Leafsavg 45¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	-$45	47% 392-445 (837)
BA BabooouCTR	Maple Leafsavg 44¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$135	51% 224-211 (435)
0xheavy888CTR	Maple Leafsavg 42.5¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$0	55% 7598-6093 (13691)
VeryLucky888CTR	Maple Leafsavg 42.5¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$0	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
CO cocococococo	Utahavg 54.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$22.22	52% 1671-1542 (3213)
OM omnibus-076daa	Utahavg 55¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$9.97	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
fyrskenCTR	Maple Leafsavg 45¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$12.49	49% 310-329 (639)
IC ic4creamCTR	Maple Leafsavg 46¢	$900.68	$861.52	-$9.79	58% 2685-1980 (4665)
LaminionYamalCTR	Maple Leafsavg 44¢	$880	$850	-$30	44% 1856-2366 (4222)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Maple Leafsavg 44.2¢	$663.38	$637.5	-$25.88	51% 204-197 (401)
38 38791873984189CTR	Maple Leafsavg 43¢	$416.67	$411.83	-$4.85	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
PI PIPIZINCTR	Maple Leafsavg 44.2¢	$385.69	$370.64	-$15.05	51% 445-431 (876)
GA gagarin59CTR	Maple Leafsavg 42¢	$208.41	$210.89	+$2.48	51% 766-737 (1503)
RO roldyCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 44¢	$92.07	$88.93	-$3.14	51% 1437-1364 (2801)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Utahavg 56¢	$54.38	$55.84	+$1.46	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 45¢	$37.98	$37.14	-$0.84	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
HRTrading<$100	Utahavg 57.2¢	$3.72	$3.74	+$0.02	51% 7341-7085 (14426)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.13	-$0.08	52% 8455-7711 (16166)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$10,895.72

Value

$10.8K

PnL

-$76.39

Record

46%

8245-9621 (17866)

Both legs:

Maple Leafs$6,004.8543.2¢-$99.48

Utah$4,890.8757.2¢+$23.08

para-VisionCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$6,450

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$75

Record

56%

229-182 (411)

royalestakeCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$4,050

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$45

Record

47%

392-445 (837)

BabooouCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$3,960

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$135

Record

51%

224-211 (435)

0xheavy888CTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$3,400

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

7598-6093 (13691)

VeryLucky888CTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$1,699.98

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

cocococococo

Utah

Invested

$1,210.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$22.22

Record

52%

1671-1542 (3213)

omnibus-076daa

Utah

Invested

$1,097.29

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$9.97

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

fyrskenCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$1,124.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$12.49

Record

49%

310-329 (639)

ic4creamCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$900.68

Value

$861.52

PnL

-$9.79

Record

58%

2685-1980 (4665)

LaminionYamalCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$880

Value

$850

PnL

-$30

Record

44%

1856-2366 (4222)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$663.38

Value

$637.5

PnL

-$25.88

Record

51%

204-197 (401)

38791873984189CTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$416.67

Value

$411.83

PnL

-$4.85

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

PIPIZINCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$385.69

Value

$370.64

PnL

-$15.05

Record

51%

445-431 (876)

gagarin59CTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$208.41

Value

$210.89

PnL

+$2.48

Record

51%

766-737 (1503)

roldyCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$92.07

Value

$88.93

PnL

-$3.14

Record

51%

1437-1364 (2801)

Flaznorp<$100

Utah

Invested

$54.38

Value

$55.84

PnL

+$1.46

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$37.98

Value

$37.14

PnL

-$0.84

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

HRTrading<$100

Utah

Invested

$3.72

Value

$3.74

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

7341-7085 (14426)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

8455-7711 (16166)

Research grade

NeutralMaple Leafs at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Maple Leafs

15 of 19 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Utah 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Maple Leafs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Utah) and the top 1000 (8 on Maple Leafs) disagree here.

whaleUtah 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrMaple Leafs 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUtah 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Maple Leafs 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maple Leafs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.