CD Tenerife vs. FC Andorra: O/U 2.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 68¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 2

Over68¢Under32¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$776.94

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 67.5¢

+38% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over68%

Under33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,980

Combined PnL+$781.21

Under4 traders

Total Value$12.42

Total Shares58

Combined PnL-$4.27

Over — 64%Under — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alvahunter	Overavg 45¢	$274.68	$833.89	+$559.21	36% 21-37 (58)
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 42.5¢	$230.93	$351.08	+$122.85	58% 48522-34672 (83194)
LI Lilybaeum	Overavg 67¢	$283.98	$299.56	+$15.57	61% 13851-8756 (22607)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 66.7¢	$291.42	$298.56	+$7.14	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
└ Over leg	Overavg 66.7¢	$196.44	$198.66	+$2.21
└ Under leg	Underavg 30.9¢	$94.98	$99.9	+$4.93
RN1	Overavg 46.8¢	$207.3	$280.12	+$74.33	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 67.5¢	$86.17	$95.72	+$9.55	47% 10059-11176 (21235)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 75¢	$16.74	$17.74	+$1	50% 25009-24731 (49740)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$9.07	$6	-$3.07	58% 11442-8290 (19732)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$4.56	$5.11	+$0.56	53% 16265-14441 (30706)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 70¢	$6.3	$5	-$1.3	51% 1005-965 (1970)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$1.93	$0.81	-$1.12	49% 13480-14176 (27656)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$1.14	$0.51	-$0.63	53% 6378-5764 (12142)

alvahunter

Over

Invested

$274.68

Value

$833.89

PnL

+$559.21

Record

36%

21-37 (58)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$230.93

Value

$351.08

PnL

+$122.85

Record

58%

48522-34672 (83194)

Lilybaeum

Over

Invested

$283.98

Value

$299.56

PnL

+$15.57

Record

61%

13851-8756 (22607)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$291.42

Value

$298.56

PnL

+$7.14

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

Both legs:

Over$196.4466.7¢+$2.21

Under$94.9830.9¢+$4.93

RN1

Over

Invested

$207.3

Value

$280.12

PnL

+$74.33

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$86.17

Value

$95.72

PnL

+$9.55

Record

47%

10059-11176 (21235)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$16.74

Value

$17.74

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

25009-24731 (49740)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.07

Value

PnL

-$3.07

Record

58%

11442-8290 (19732)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.56

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$0.56

Record

53%

16265-14441 (30706)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$6.3

Value

PnL

-$1.3

Record

51%

1005-965 (1970)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.93

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$1.12

Record

49%

13480-14176 (27656)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.14

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$0.63

Record

53%

6378-5764 (12142)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.