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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | FakePolls | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (576–717, n=1293) | 62% (240–147, n=387) | 47% (14240–15745, n=29985) |
| Consensus PnL | $7.3M | $199K | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #3 | PM monthly #198 | PM monthly #30 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 76% (28 of 37 open) | 69% (9 of 13 open) | 64% (127 of 200 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| |
| Weakest topic | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 586 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 87% of 281 at avg 66¢, ROI +17% | 94% of 25960 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 82% of 60) | 10% (won 48% of 27) | 10% (won 57% of 2588) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 35% (won 98% of 206) | 13% (won 65% of 37) | 22% (won 94% of 5673) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 100% of 204) | 22% (won 89% of 63) | 35% (won 99% of 9163) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 20% (won 100% of 116) | 55% (won 98% of 154) | 33% (won 100% of 8536) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BreakTheBank | FakePolls | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $34K | Yes $9.0K | — |
| Spread: Thunder (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Thunder | Grizzlies $14K | — | Thunder $957 |
| Spread: Mavericks (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Mavericks | Jazz $422 | — | Mavericks $496 |
| Spread: Thunder (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies | Grizzlies $50 | — | Thunder $494 |
| Spread: Raptors (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Raptors | Raptors $450 | — | Bucks $91 |
| Spread: Raptors (-4.5) same side · consensus Bucks | Raptors $122 | — | Raptors $269 |