Known as FakePolls since Nov 4 2026 · Previously known as: BiDiFakePolls (Oct 3 – Nov 4 2026)
Consensus PnL $188K · win rate 61% (233–147, n=380) · PM monthly #194 · holds 16 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$188.2K
Record
233W / 147L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 380 settled
Batting Avg
49.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#774
Source
PM monthly #194
Record (90 d)
170/196 · 87%
Trades
6,917
Markets
472
Volume
$1.2M
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Top consensus positions
16 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 16 on the consensus side (69%)- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes $8.7K · now 95¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (80% of 128)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $8.2K · now 95¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (69% of 152)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $4.7K · now 100¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (66% of 88)
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?Yes $2.9K · now 97¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?Yes $1.5K · now 60¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (50% of 20)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?Yes $1.1K · now 96¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-07 House seat?Yes $719 · now 99¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (76% of 17)
- Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?Yes $517 · now 98¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (67% of 39)
Specialties
252 settled consensus markets · held side won 85% at an average entry of 65¢- Elections
+19 pts
side won 85% of 246 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +14%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 48% of 27)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 60% of 35)
- 50–70¢: 22%(won 85% of 55)
- 70¢ and up: 54%(won 98% of 135)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.