Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankCandleHammerDrumsHomeRunHazard
Record (consensus markets)58% (22–16, n=38)60% (129–87, n=216)55% (216–179, n=395)
Consensus PnL$837K-$14K$290K
Tracked asPM monthly #1was PM monthly #882PM monthly #7
Sides with the consensus56% (9 of 16 open)53% (10 of 19 open)66% (117 of 176 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +51 pts n=14, ROI +48%
not computed yet
Weakest topic———
Settled positions, side won100% of 23 at avg 50¢, ROI +47%—100% of 97 at avg 54¢, ROI +46%
Entries under 30¢0%—1% (won 100% of 1)
Entries 30–50¢57% (won 100% of 13)—32% (won 100% of 31)
Entries 50–70¢39% (won 100% of 9)—57% (won 100% of 55)
Entries 70¢ and up4% (won 100% of 1)—10% (won 100% of 10)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

8 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankCandleHammerDrumsHomeRunHazard
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies
Grizzlies $18KNuggets $14Nuggets $16K
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies
opposite sides · consensus Nuggets
Grizzlies $126K—Nuggets $5.0K
Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Trail Blazers
Trail Blazers $676—Thunder $4.3K
Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Trail Blazers
Trail Blazers $133—Thunder $3.7K
Spread: Magic (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Jazz
—Jazz $151Magic $17
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Nuggets
Grizzlies $2—Nuggets $49
Spurs vs. Bulls
same side · consensus Spurs
Spurs $188K—Spurs $11K
Spread: Lakers (-14.5)
same side · consensus Bucks
Lakers $3.3K—Lakers $20K
Lakers vs. Bucks
same side · consensus Lakers
—Lakers $2.3KLakers $13K
Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)
same side · consensus Nets
Nets $945—Nets $6.2K
Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)
same side · consensus Pelicans
—Pelicans $111Pelicans $5.0K
Spread: Lakers (-13.5)
same side · consensus Lakers
—Bucks $26Bucks $4.4K
Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)
same side · consensus Grizzlies
Grizzlies $468—Grizzlies $1.3K
Spread: Jazz (-1.5)
same side · consensus Magic
—Jazz $61Jazz $7