Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Grizzlies, while the market favors Nuggets (60%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (50%) · Grizzlies at 41¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Grizzlies
4
Grizzlies 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
$3.24
40.3¢ → 40.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidGrizzlies at 41%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Nuggets 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormakeCTR | Grizzliesavg 40¢ | $706 | $706 | +$8.83 | 58% 3041-2166 (5207) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Nuggetsavg 60¢ | $372.23 | $363.52 | -$10.41 | 46% 124-145 (269) |
| └ Nuggets leg | Nuggetsavg 60¢ | $203.81 | $203.81 | -$1.7 | |
| └ Grizzlies leg | Grizzliesavg 42.2¢ | $168.42 | $159.7 | -$8.72 | |
GA Gaditima | Nuggetsavg 59.5¢ | $148.81 | $150 | -$0.06 | 51% 62-60 (122) |
OD OddstormCTR | Grizzliesavg 42¢ | $153.72 | $146.4 | -$5.49 | 7% 7-88 (95) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Nuggetsavg 60¢ | $4.2 | $4.2 | -$0.04 | 52% 92-86 (178) |
Invested
$706
Value
$706
PnL
+$8.83
Record
58%
3041-2166 (5207)
Invested
$372.23
Value
$363.52
PnL
-$10.41
Record
46%
124-145 (269)
Both legs:
Invested
$148.81
Value
$150
PnL
-$0.06
Record
51%
62-60 (122)
Invested
$153.72
Value
$146.4
PnL
-$5.49
Record
7%
7-88 (95)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$4.2
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$0.04
Record
52%
92-86 (178)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.