Lakers vs. Bucks

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (50%) · Lakers at 81¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Lakers81¢Bucks19¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 50%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$6.51

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 80.8¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lakers81%

Bucks19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,904

Combined PnL-$8.69

Bucks2 traders

Total Value$62.99

Total Shares179

Combined PnL+$2.18

Lakers — 50%Bucks — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Lakersavg 80¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$9.34	69% 2536-1149 (3685)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Bucksavg 19.7¢	$41.13	$51.12	+$0.96	7% 7-88 (95)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Lakersavg 79¢	$29.23	$29.88	+$0.65	4% 21-541 (562)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bucksavg 17.7¢	$7.8	$11.87	+$1.22	47% 329-371 (700)

purplegatto

Lakers

Invested

$1,493.6

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$9.34

Record

69%

2536-1149 (3685)

OddstormCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$41.13

Value

$51.12

PnL

+$0.96

Record

7-88 (95)

darkumbreon88<$100

Lakers

Invested

$29.23

Value

$29.88

PnL

+$0.65

Record

21-541 (562)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$7.8

Value

$11.87

PnL

+$1.22

Record

47%

329-371 (700)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.5%

80.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.