Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (14%) · Pelicans at 51¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12

Pelicans51¢Nets49¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

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Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 14%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$84.79

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pelicans51%

Nets50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans1 trader

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares8,434

Combined PnL+$84.34

Nets6 traders

Total Value$186.59

Total Shares303

Combined PnL+$0.45

Pelicans — 14%Nets — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Pelicansavg 54¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	+$84.34	54% 521-440 (961)
38 38791873984189CTR	Netsavg 44.7¢	$106.13	$106.14	+$0.01	48% 1332-1446 (2778)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Netsavg 45¢	$49.84	$48.73	-$1.11	31% 380-865 (1245)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Netsavg 45¢	$18.01	$19.01	+$1	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Netsavg 46¢	$7.56	$8.14	+$0.58	31% 379-844 (1223)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Netsavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.38	+$0.02	51% 1833-1787 (3620)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Netsavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.2	-$0.05	51% 446-422 (868)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Pelicans

Invested

$4,554.44

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$84.34

Record

54%

521-440 (961)

38791873984189CTR

Nets

Invested

$106.13

Value

$106.14

PnL

+$0.01

Record

48%

1332-1446 (2778)

VenusianCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$49.84

Value

$48.73

PnL

-$1.11

Record

31%

380-865 (1245)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$18.01

Value

$19.01

PnL

+$1

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$7.56

Value

$8.14

PnL

+$0.58

Record

31%

379-844 (1223)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

1833-1787 (3620)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

446-422 (868)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.