Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (46%) · Nets at 81¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 12

Pelicans19¢Nets81¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 46%

Total Value

$17.9K

Combined PnL

$974.68

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 81¢

+71% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pelicans19%

Nets81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets6 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares17,875

Combined PnL+$5.9K

Pelicans7 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares16,052

Combined PnL$-4.9K

Nets — 46%Pelicans — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-34 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Pelicans) and the top 1000 (12 on Nets) disagree here.

whaleNets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPelicans 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedPelicans 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Nets 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18	Netsavg 47¢	$7.8K	$13.4K	+$5.6K	51% 720-699 (1419)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pelicansavg 53¢	$7.2K	$3.0K	$-4.2K	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
FL Flaznorp	Netsavg 57.9¢	$552.01	$719.43	+$167.42	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
VeryLucky888CTR	Pelicansavg 53¢	$1.1K	$450.36	-$634.13	52% 497-453 (950)
LI LightParadox	Netsavg 43.9¢	$121.19	$187.68	+$66.49	31% 412-920 (1332)
38 38791873984189<$100	Netsavg 39¢	$37.05	$64.6	+$27.55	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Pelicansavg 40.9¢	$100.59	$54.11	-$46.49	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 39.8¢	$89.27	$51.39	-$37.88	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
VE Venusian<$100	Netsavg 42¢	$18.68	$30.24	+$11.56	31% 411-924 (1335)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Netsavg 40¢	$5.33	$9.06	+$3.73	70% 1671-717 (2388)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 40¢	$12.4	$6.82	-$5.58	49% 693-734 (1427)
RN1CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 41¢	$8.23	$6.65	-$1.57	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 56¢	$2.8	$1.85	-$0.95	34% 328-634 (962)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18

Nets

Invested

$7,751.93

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

51%

720-699 (1419)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$7,152

Value

$3.0K

PnL

$-4.2K

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

Flaznorp

Nets

Invested

$552.01

Value

$719.43

PnL

+$167.42

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

VeryLucky888CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$1,084.49

Value

$450.36

PnL

-$634.13

Record

52%

497-453 (950)

LightParadox

Nets

Invested

$121.19

Value

$187.68

PnL

+$66.49

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

38791873984189<$100

Nets

Invested

$37.05

Value

$64.6

PnL

+$27.55

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$100.59

Value

$54.11

PnL

-$46.49

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$89.27

Value

$51.39

PnL

-$37.88

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Venusian<$100

Nets

Invested

$18.68

Value

$30.24

PnL

+$11.56

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

SunlineTicker<$100

Nets

Invested

$5.33

Value

$9.06

PnL

+$3.73

Record

70%

1671-717 (2388)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$12.4

Value

$6.82

PnL

-$5.58

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

RN1CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$8.23

Value

$6.65

PnL

-$1.57

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$2.8

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.95

Record

34%

328-634 (962)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-34 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Pelicans) and the top 1000 (12 on Nets) disagree here.

whaleNets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPelicans 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedPelicans 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Nets 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.