Spread: Magic (-1.5)

7 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (37%) · Magic at 53¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 12

Magic53¢Jazz47¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 37%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$440.31

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 53¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

7 of 19 top traders (37%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Magic53%

Jazz47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,279

Combined PnL+$611.5

Jazz12 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,864

Combined PnL-$171.19

Magic — 37%Jazz — 63%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Jazzavg 42.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$1.81	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 42.9¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$3.01
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 57.3¢	$841.37	$836.55	-$4.81
FL Flaznorp	Magicavg 48.3¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$581.52	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Jazzavg 51.9¢	$799.44	$755.53	-$43.91	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 51.9¢	$578.2	$557.51	-$20.69
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 55.9¢	$221.24	$198.02	-$23.22
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Jazzavg 51.5¢	$2.4K	$455.14	-$111.66	55% 843-701 (1544)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Jazzavg 50.4¢	$366.28	$392.46	+$26.18	47% 279-315 (594)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 50.4¢	$284.16	$310.2	+$26.04
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 44.9¢	$82.12	$82.26	+$0.14
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Magicavg 61.2¢	$403.55	$378.92	-$24.63	53% 305-275 (580)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Magicavg 57.6¢	$539.69	$319.97	-$61.24	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 57.6¢	$264.85	$243.6	-$21.26
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 51.8¢	$84.1	$76.38	-$39.98
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Jazzavg 52.6¢	$315.86	$258.43	-$57.43	39% 233-367 (600)
TA takeormake	Magicavg 51.1¢	$359.29	$209.25	+$31.25	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
LU luckycat888888CTR	Jazzavg 55¢	$223.88	$191.31	-$32.56	17% 20-98 (118)
AN Anon455CTR	Jazzavg 49¢	$181.3	$175.75	-$5.55	46% 200-233 (433)
alpheclabs2CTR	Jazzavg 35¢	$107.45	$127.4	+$19.95	44% 143-184 (327)
LI LightParadox<$100	Magicavg 47.8¢	$84	$99.39	+$15.39	31% 441-967 (1408)
38 38791873984189CTR	Jazzavg 49.8¢	$226.94	$97.18	+$10.24	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
MA MadridTime<$100	Magicavg 47¢	$66.39	$79.81	+$13.42	32% 444-952 (1396)
SU suntori<$100	Magicavg 58¢	$54.68	$50.91	-$3.77	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
PA Pan9XCTR	Jazzavg 46.7¢	$147.88	$38.68	+$5.07	49% 786-829 (1615)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Jazzavg 43.6¢	$22.05	$21.87	+$4.82	49% 973-998 (1971)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Magicavg 58.5¢	$22.01	$20.33	-$1.68	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Jazzavg 55¢	$24.64	$19.26	-$5.38	39% 80-127 (207)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Jazzavg 41¢	$9.29	$10.42	+$1.13	40% 438-657 (1095)
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	Jazzavg 43¢	$2.39	$2.61	+$0.22	56% 722-566 (1288)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Jazzavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.35	-$0.05	31% 444-971 (1415)

RN1ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$1,868.34

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$1.81

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Jazz$1,015.8142.9¢+$3.01

Magic$841.3757.3¢-$4.81

Flaznorp

Magic

Invested

$1,380.09

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$581.52

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$799.44

Value

$755.53

PnL

-$43.91

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

Both legs:

Jazz$578.251.9¢-$20.69

Magic$221.2455.9¢-$23.22

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Jazz

Invested

$2,433.56

Value

$455.14

PnL

-$111.66

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$366.28

Value

$392.46

PnL

+$26.18

Record

47%

279-315 (594)

Both legs:

Jazz$284.1650.4¢+$26.04

Magic$82.1244.9¢+$0.14

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Magic

Invested

$403.55

Value

$378.92

PnL

-$24.63

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$539.69

Value

$319.97

PnL

-$61.24

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Both legs:

Magic$264.8557.6¢-$21.26

Jazz$84.151.8¢-$39.98

justaluckydudeCTR

Jazz

Invested

$315.86

Value

$258.43

PnL

-$57.43

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

takeormake

Magic

Invested

$359.29

Value

$209.25

PnL

+$31.25

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

luckycat888888CTR

Jazz

Invested

$223.88

Value

$191.31

PnL

-$32.56

Record

17%

20-98 (118)

Anon455CTR

Jazz

Invested

$181.3

Value

$175.75

PnL

-$5.55

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

alpheclabs2CTR

Jazz

Invested

$107.45

Value

$127.4

PnL

+$19.95

Record

44%

143-184 (327)

LightParadox<$100

Magic

Invested

$84

Value

$99.39

PnL

+$15.39

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

38791873984189CTR

Jazz

Invested

$226.94

Value

$97.18

PnL

+$10.24

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

MadridTime<$100

Magic

Invested

$66.39

Value

$79.81

PnL

+$13.42

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

suntori<$100

Magic

Invested

$54.68

Value

$50.91

PnL

-$3.77

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

Pan9XCTR

Jazz

Invested

$147.88

Value

$38.68

PnL

+$5.07

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$22.05

Value

$21.87

PnL

+$4.82

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Magic

Invested

$22.01

Value

$20.33

PnL

-$1.68

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$24.64

Value

$19.26

PnL

-$5.38

Record

39%

80-127 (207)

sentrioCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$9.29

Value

$10.42

PnL

+$1.13

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.39

Value

$2.61

PnL

+$0.22

Record

56%

722-566 (1288)

VenusianCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Magic

7 of 19 top traders (37%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.