Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Grizzlies, while the market favors Nuggets (57%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (67%) · Grizzlies at 43¢ · $160 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Grizzlies
6
Grizzlies 67%
$160.27
$1.79
41¢ → 42.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidGrizzlies at 43%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Nuggets 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Grizzliesavg 41¢ | $72.76 | $73.65 | +$0.89 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Grizzliesavg 41¢ | $40.03 | $40.52 | +$0.49 | 46% 292-339 (631) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Nuggetsavg 58¢ | $36.54 | $36.86 | +$0.31 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
BR BreakTheBankCTR<$100 | Grizzliesavg 42¢ | $4.2 | $4.25 | +$0.05 | 42% 583-818 (1401) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Nuggetsavg 58¢ | $2.9 | $2.93 | +$0.02 | 33% 317-631 (948) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Grizzliesavg 41¢ | $2.05 | $2.07 | +$0.02 | 31% 406-905 (1311) |
Invested
$72.76
Value
$73.65
PnL
+$0.89
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$40.03
Value
$40.52
PnL
+$0.49
Record
46%
292-339 (631)
Invested
$36.54
Value
$36.86
PnL
+$0.31
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$4.25
PnL
+$0.05
Record
42%
583-818 (1401)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$2.93
PnL
+$0.02
Record
33%
317-631 (948)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$2.07
PnL
+$0.02
Record
31%
406-905 (1311)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.