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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241BreakTheBankDavidShekelndb1
Record (consensus markets)56% (101–79, n=180)45% (547–663, n=1210)68% (387–179, n=566)66% (876–458, n=1334)
Consensus PnL$3.5M$11.0M$169K$4.1M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #373PM monthly #1PM monthly #315PM monthly #26
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position68% (77 of 114 open)100% (3 of 3 open)74% (28 of 38 open)
Strongest topics
  • MLB +46 pts n=20, ROI +49%
  • Esports +35 pts n=28, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +30 pts n=52, ROI +38%
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
  • F1 +21 pts n=92, ROI −12%
  • Soccer +13 pts n=256, ROI +4%
  • MMA +28 pts n=17, ROI +36%
Weakest topic——NFL −7 pts, n=17NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won94% of 111 at avg 58¢, ROI +42%97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%77% of 543 at avg 63¢, ROI +3%64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢7% (won 75% of 8)10% (won 81% of 57)24% (won 19% of 129)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢26% (won 93% of 29)36% (won 98% of 201)6% (won 74% of 31)20% (won 40% of 253)
Entries 50–70¢42% (won 96% of 47)35% (won 99% of 196)16% (won 90% of 86)24% (won 57% of 310)
Entries 70¢ and up24% (won 96% of 27)19% (won 100% of 109)55% (won 99% of 297)43% (won 93% of 544)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

5 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241BreakTheBankDavidShekelndb1
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $77K—No $1.8M
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $1.4K—No $1.4M
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $187K—Yes $781K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $265K—Yes $544K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $287K—No $60K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $28K—No $831
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $183K—Yes $324K
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $42K—No $93K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $55K—Yes $12K
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $3.5K—No $7.0K
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $157—No $4.0K