Consensus PnL $186K · win rate 68% (387–178, n=565) · PM monthly #316 · holds 36 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$186.3K
Record
387W / 178L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 565 settled
Batting Avg
87.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#839
Source
PM monthly #316
Record (90 d)
72/86 · 84%
Trades
708
Markets
928
Volume
$4.9M
Top consensus positions
36 in listed consensus markets · 28 of 36 on the consensus side (78%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $91K · now 82¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (42% of 84)
- Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup?No $9.1K · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (18% of 11)
- Will Mississippi Rebels win the 2027 CFP National Championship?No $1.5K · now 96¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (13% of 8)
- Will Manchester City finish in the top 2 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?Yes $745 · now 37¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- Will Benfica win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?No $649 · now 85¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (30% of 10)
- Will TSG Hoffenheim win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?No $272 · now 98¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (20% of 5)
- Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $258 · now 5¢ · in at 4¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Sunderland win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?No $234 · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (14% of 7)
Specialties
543 settled consensus markets · held side won 77% at an average entry of 63¢- F1
+21 pts
side won 96% of 92 · avg entry 74¢
ROI −12%
- Soccer
+13 pts
side won 73% of 256 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +4%
- MMA
+28 pts
side won 82% of 17 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +36%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 18% of 17 at an average 25¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 24%(won 19% of 129)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 74% of 31)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 90% of 86)
- 70¢ and up: 55%(won 99% of 297)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.