Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465primmRandomfool
Record (consensus markets)54% (4827–4032, n=8859)50% (1248–1260, n=2508)98% (128–3, n=131)
Consensus PnL$8.2M$3.6M$60K
Tracked asPM monthly #15PM monthly #48PM monthly #944
Sides with the consensus55% (16 of 29 open)55% (6 of 11 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NBA +10 pts n=467, ROI +5%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2316, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1408, ROI +4%
Weakest topicNHL −1 pts, n=136—Tennis −1 pts, n=24
Settled positions, side won59% of 7152 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%99% of 1027 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%98% of 128 at avg 96¢, ROI +2%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 11% of 1182)5% (won 94% of 51)0%
Entries 30–50¢25% (won 46% of 1753)41% (won 99% of 421)0%
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 66% of 2092)49% (won 99% of 508)0%
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 91% of 2125)5% (won 100% of 47)100% (won 98% of 128)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465primmRandomfool
Raiders vs. 49ers
opposite sides · consensus 49ers
Raiders $37K49ers $85K—
Raiders vs. 49ers: O/U 52.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
Over $6.7KUnder $1.4K—
Spread: Texans (-5.5)
same side · consensus Chargers
Texans $23KTexans $4.7K—