Raiders vs. 49ers
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold 49ers (80%) · 49ers at 81¢ · $859 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
49ers
5
49ers 80%
1 arb excluded
$859.12
$8.72
80.1¢ → 81¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Neutral49ers at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE Herdonia | 49ersavg 80¢ | $585.59 | $592.74 | +$7.15 | 50% 3577-3507 (7084) |
DV dv-pmARB<$100 | Raidersavg 20¢ | $161.18 | $150.46 | -$7.59 | 49% 3284-3383 (6667) |
| └ Raiders leg | Raidersavg 20¢ | $113.18 | $101.86 | -$8.49 | |
| └ 49ers leg | 49ersavg 80¢ | $48 | $48.6 | +$0.9 | |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | 49ersavg 80.4¢ | $59.46 | $59.94 | +$0.85 | 54% 501-434 (935) |
NM NM-P<$100 | 49ersavg 81¢ | $21.32 | $38.55 | +$0.45 | 46% 1298-1515 (2813) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | 49ersavg 78.8¢ | $11 | $11.27 | +$0.27 | 48% 57267-60865 (118132) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Raidersavg 18¢ | $6.15 | $6.15 | -$0 | 58% 44906-32675 (77581) |
Invested
$585.59
Value
$592.74
PnL
+$7.15
Record
50%
3577-3507 (7084)
Invested
$161.18
Value
$150.46
PnL
-$7.59
Record
49%
3284-3383 (6667)
Both legs:
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$59.46
Value
$59.94
PnL
+$0.85
Record
54%
501-434 (935)
Invested
$21.32
Value
$38.55
PnL
+$0.45
Record
46%
1298-1515 (2813)
Invested
$11
Value
$11.27
PnL
+$0.27
Record
48%
57267-60865 (118132)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$6.15
Value
$6.15
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
44906-32675 (77581)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.