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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankndb1omnibus-076daa
Record (consensus markets)58% (4521–3297, n=7818)45% (573–710, n=1283)63% (990–573, n=1563)50% (15507–15590, n=31097)
Consensus PnL$7.8M$7.9M$3.2M$3.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #68PM monthly #3PM monthly #105PM monthly #60
Sides with the consensus68% (13 of 19 open)86% (24 of 28 open)73% (81 of 111 open)56% (111 of 198 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +9 pts n=444, ROI +6%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2281, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1399, ROI +4%
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
Weakest topicNHL −1 pts, n=134—NFL −9 pts, n=139—
Settled positions, side won59% of 7054 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%92% of 11270 at avg 61¢, ROI +32%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 11% of 1183)11% (won 80% of 61)13% (won 15% of 168)8% (won 60% of 874)
Entries 30–50¢24% (won 45% of 1724)35% (won 98% of 203)20% (won 39% of 256)21% (won 87% of 2384)
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 66% of 2055)35% (won 100% of 201)24% (won 58% of 314)38% (won 95% of 4296)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 91% of 2092)20% (won 100% of 115)43% (won 93% of 550)33% (won 99% of 3716)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

14 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankndb1omnibus-076daa
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.5KYes $48K——
K. Sint-Truidense VV vs. SK Brann: O/U 3.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
Over $13K——Under $20
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $2.4K—Yes $164
Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2026-11-05?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $161——Yes $2
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $7Yes $993K—
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
—No $407KNo $335K—
Magic vs. Suns
same side · consensus Magic
Magic $129K——Magic $255
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $52K——Yes $2.4K
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $23K—Yes $122
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $15K—Yes $206
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
——Yes $11KYes $4
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
No $773——No $4.1K
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $2.6K—Yes $71
Will NEC win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
Yes $1.2K——Yes $486
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $1.0K—Yes $59
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
Yes $70——Yes $330
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $28—Yes $41
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
Yes $40——Yes $23