Will NEC win on 2026-11-05?

17 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 65¢ · $36K held · ended Nov 5

Yes36¢No64¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$36.3K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

43.8¢ → 64.5¢

+47% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 27 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$20.8K

Total Shares40,640

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Yes10 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares15,388

Combined PnL+$47.47

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 45.6¢	$6.1K	$8.3K	+$2.2K	53% 61353-53664 (115017)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 42.9¢	$5.5K	$6.4K	+$954.75	51% 25736-24442 (50178)
└ No leg	Noavg 42.9¢	$3.4K	$5.1K	+$1.6K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.3¢	$2.0K	$1.4K	-$653.53
nigiri99CTR	Yesavg 57.2¢	$6.3K	$6.4K	+$36.21	46% 8591-10242 (18833)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 43.2¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$27.4	50% 2731-2712 (5443)
0X 0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814	Noavg 41.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$49.81	47% 218-250 (468)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 42.6¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$68.03	58% 46675-33635 (80310)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Yesavg 59.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$8.63	53% 6257-5538 (11795)
NM NM-P	Noavg 42.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$5.61	64% 9921-5527 (15448)
FaroeseNationalist	Noavg 43¢	$955.46	$955.46	+$0	50% 545-553 (1098)
GC GC-P	Noavg 43.3¢	$794.78	$788.61	-$6.17	64% 9962-5595 (15557)
CA Cannae	Noavg 42.4¢	$715.37	$683.9	-$31.48	53% 16798-14919 (31717)
VE Venusian	Noavg 50.2¢	$487.96	$651.24	+$163.28	51% 1376-1340 (2716)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 57.2¢	$484.12	$486.39	+$2.27	50% 21164-21421 (42585)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yesavg 58.2¢	$436.69	$423.75	-$12.94	51% 1899-1850 (3749)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 42¢	$420	$405	-$15	53% 23490-20724 (44214)
PU purplegattoCTR	Yesavg 57¢	$213.75	$223.13	+$9.38	49% 6288-6447 (12735)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 45.2¢	$178.55	$169.74	-$8.81	50% 1322-1299 (2621)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 41.8¢	$149.19	$151.79	+$2.6	48% 61037-65871 (126908)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$98.61	$96.78	-$1.83	61% 14348-9281 (23629)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$85.18	$85.92	+$0.73	46% 1536-1808 (3344)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 44¢	$79.2	$77.83	-$1.37	52% 14487-13178 (27665)
└ No leg	Noavg 44¢	$41.77	$40.34	-$1.42
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57.4¢	$37.44	$37.49	+$0.05
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 44.2¢	$39.36	$37.82	-$1.54	53% 1421-1264 (2685)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Yesavg 41.2¢	$66.37	$37.53	+$4.96	55% 9735-8125 (17860)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 46.2¢	$23.3	$22.43	-$0.88	52% 1374-1289 (2663)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 43¢	$20.82	$20.82	+$0	51% 6344-6129 (12473)

RN1

Invested

$6,080.11

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

53%

61353-53664 (115017)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$5,489.76

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$954.75

Record

51%

25736-24442 (50178)

Both legs:

No$3,442.0742.9¢+$1.6K

Yes$2,047.6954.3¢-$653.53

nigiri99CTR

Yes

Invested

$6,326.74

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$36.21

Record

46%

8591-10242 (18833)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$4,199.49

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$27.4

Record

50%

2731-2712 (5443)

0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814

Invested

$1,887.77

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$49.81

Record

47%

218-250 (468)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,440.28

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$68.03

Record

58%

46675-33635 (80310)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,166.11

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$8.63

Record

53%

6257-5538 (11795)

NM-P

Invested

$1,134.29

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$5.61

Record

64%

9921-5527 (15448)

FaroeseNationalist

Invested

$955.46

Value

$955.46

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

545-553 (1098)

GC-P

Invested

$794.78

Value

$788.61

PnL

-$6.17

Record

64%

9962-5595 (15557)

Cannae

Invested

$715.37

Value

$683.9

PnL

-$31.48

Record

53%

16798-14919 (31717)

Venusian

Invested

$487.96

Value

$651.24

PnL

+$163.28

Record

51%

1376-1340 (2716)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$484.12

Value

$486.39

PnL

+$2.27

Record

50%

21164-21421 (42585)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yes

Invested

$436.69

Value

$423.75

PnL

-$12.94

Record

51%

1899-1850 (3749)

cigarettes

Invested

$420

Value

$405

PnL

-$15

Record

53%

23490-20724 (44214)

purplegattoCTR

Yes

Invested

$213.75

Value

$223.13

PnL

+$9.38

Record

49%

6288-6447 (12735)

MadridTime

Invested

$178.55

Value

$169.74

PnL

-$8.81

Record

50%

1322-1299 (2621)

38791873984189

Invested

$149.19

Value

$151.79

PnL

+$2.6

Record

48%

61037-65871 (126908)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.61

Value

$96.78

PnL

-$1.83

Record

61%

14348-9281 (23629)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$85.18

Value

$85.92

PnL

+$0.73

Record

46%

1536-1808 (3344)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$79.2

Value

$77.83

PnL

-$1.37

Record

52%

14487-13178 (27665)

Both legs:

No$41.7744¢-$1.42

Yes$37.4457.4¢+$0.05

Limousin<$100

Invested

$39.36

Value

$37.82

PnL

-$1.54

Record

53%

1421-1264 (2685)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.37

Value

$37.53

PnL

+$4.96

Record

55%

9735-8125 (17860)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$23.3

Value

$22.43

PnL

-$0.88

Record

52%

1374-1289 (2663)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$20.82

Value

$20.82

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

6344-6129 (12473)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 27 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.