Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankbuoysprimm
Record (consensus markets)58% (4512–3287, n=7799)45% (573–710, n=1283)48% (684–737, n=1421)50% (1106–1117, n=2223)
Consensus PnL$7.8M$9.4M$93K$3.6M
Tracked asPM monthly #67PM monthly #3PM monthly #940PM monthly #46
Sides with the consensus70% (14 of 20 open)71% (24 of 34 open)56% (102 of 181 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NBA +9 pts n=444, ROI +6%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2281, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1399, ROI +4%
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
Weakest topicNHL −1 pts, n=134—Science −7 pts, n=13—
Settled positions, side won59% of 7054 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%47% of 1635 at avg 41¢, ROI +2%99% of 987 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 11% of 1183)11% (won 80% of 61)41% (won 12% of 676)5% (won 94% of 51)
Entries 30–50¢24% (won 45% of 1724)35% (won 98% of 203)16% (won 47% of 257)41% (won 99% of 405)
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 66% of 2055)35% (won 100% of 201)19% (won 67% of 309)49% (won 99% of 485)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 91% of 2092)20% (won 100% of 115)24% (won 91% of 393)5% (won 100% of 46)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankbuoysprimm
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.4KYes $78KYes $46—
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $46—No $521—
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $81KYes $8.2K—
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
same side · consensus Yes
No $56No $88K——
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus No
No $4.5KNo $1.0K——