Consensus PnL $93K · win rate 48% (673–724, n=1397) · was PM monthly #966 · holds 43 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$93.5K
Record
673W / 724L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 1397 settled
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1325
Source
PM monthly #966
Record (90 d)
203/505 · 40%
Trades
0
Markets
2,038
Volume
$748.2K
Loading this trader’s full history
Large accounts take up to ~20 s
Loading positions and trades…
Top consensus positions
43 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 43 on the consensus side (30%)- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $616 · now 59¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $396 · now 67¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (59% of 79)
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No $365 · now 98¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (60% of 83)
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No $365 · now 83¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (66% of 50)
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes $211 · now 96¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (39% of 42)
- Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?Yes $172 · now 9¢ · in at 6¢against the consensus (No)
- Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Yes $166 · now 16¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $153 · now 12¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,635 settled consensus markets · held side won 47% at an average entry of 41¢- Elections
+7 pts
side won 42% of 645 · avg entry 35¢
ROI +2%
- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 63% of 330 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +3%
- Politics
+5 pts
side won 46% of 192 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Science — held side won 23% of 13 at an average 30¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 41%(won 12% of 676)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 47% of 257)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 67% of 309)
- 70¢ and up: 24%(won 91% of 393)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.