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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankFlaznorpnehcnehc
Record (consensus markets)58% (4521–3296, n=7817)45% (573–710, n=1283)52% (6519–6017, n=12536)61% (4134–2660, n=6794)
Consensus PnL$7.8M$7.9M$3.5M-$719K
Tracked asPM monthly #67PM monthly #3PM monthly #24PM monthly #708
Sides with the consensus60% (6 of 10 open)83% (24 of 29 open)70% (193 of 275 open)100% (4 of 4 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +9 pts n=444, ROI +6%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2281, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1399, ROI +4%
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
  • Tennis +13 pts n=53, ROI +24%
  • NHL +8 pts n=61, ROI +12%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topicNHL −1 pts, n=134—Other Sports −13 pts, n=22Politics −7 pts, n=125
Settled positions, side won59% of 7054 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%56% of 1617 at avg 55¢, ROI +27%63% of 8890 at avg 64¢, ROI 0%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 11% of 1183)11% (won 80% of 61)29% (won 11% of 465)1% (won 20% of 92)
Entries 30–50¢24% (won 45% of 1724)35% (won 98% of 203)16% (won 40% of 255)25% (won 44% of 2260)
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 66% of 2055)35% (won 100% of 201)16% (won 62% of 260)40% (won 55% of 3534)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 91% of 2092)20% (won 100% of 115)39% (won 94% of 637)34% (won 87% of 3004)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankFlaznorpnehcnehc
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.4KYes $79K——
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $51K——Yes $3.9K
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Inter Club d'Escaldes: O/U 3.5
same side · consensus Over
Under $25K—Under $1.1K—
New Hampshire Wildcats vs. Rider Broncs
same side · consensus Rider Broncs
Rider Broncs $2.9K—Rider Broncs $171—