Consensus PnL -$848K · win rate 61% (4043–2616, n=6659) · PM monthly #760 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-847.7K
Record
4043W / 2616L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 6659 settled
Batting Avg
34.1%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1164
Source
PM monthly #760
Record (90 d)
896/1645 · 54%
Trades
36,461
Markets
9,250
Volume
$31.2M
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Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 8 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $62K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (85% of 197)
- Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?Yes $5.0K · now 89¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (54% of 39)
- Shanghai Sharks vs. Jilin Northeast TigersShanghai Sharks $3.7K · now 100¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (67% of 33)
- Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?Yes $2.4K · now 96¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (60% of 45)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $1.7K · now 77¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (73% of 68)
- Luanda: Justina Mikulskyte vs Maayan LaronJustina Mikulskyte $506 · now 75¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (38% of 11)
- Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026?Yes $496 · now 94¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (57% of 22)
- Shanxi Loongs vs. Xinjiang Flying TigersShanxi Loongs $160 · now 100¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (69% of 16)
Specialties
8,850 settled consensus markets · held side won 62% at an average entry of 64¢- College Basketball
+4 pts
side won 77% of 137 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +6%
- Economy
+8 pts
side won 95% of 22 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +7%
- Entertainment
+2 pts
side won 87% of 30 · avg entry 84¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 79% of 125 at an average 87¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 20% of 92)
- 30–50¢: 25%(won 44% of 2250)
- 50–70¢: 40%(won 54% of 3516)
- 70¢ and up: 34%(won 87% of 2992)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.