Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
beachboy4BreakTheBankCUTJALENHURTSndb1
Record (consensus markets)no settled market45% (546–663, n=1209)52% (5343–4918, n=10261)65% (870–459, n=1329)
Consensus PnL—$11.2M$608K$4.2M
Tracked as—PM monthly #2PM monthly #59PM monthly #11
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position67% (34 of 51 open)72% (76 of 106 open)74% (25 of 34 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topic——Other Sports −1 pts, n=164NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won—97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%54% of 10253 at avg 51¢, ROI +3%64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢—10% (won 81% of 57)13% (won 19% of 1347)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢—36% (won 98% of 201)35% (won 46% of 3634)20% (won 40% of 253)
Entries 50–70¢—35% (won 99% of 196)35% (won 61% of 3558)24% (won 57% of 310)
Entries 70¢ and up—19% (won 100% of 109)17% (won 86% of 1714)43% (won 93% of 544)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

20 on the same side, 11 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketbeachboy4BreakTheBankCUTJALENHURTSndb1
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $56No $98KNo $1.5M
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $241KYes $35KYes $503K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $3.1K—No $2.0M
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $7.5K—Yes $820K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $327K—Yes $1.7K
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $22KNo $4.8K—
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $16KYes $3.0K—
Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $13KNo $4.8K—
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $28No $11K—
Will the Phoenix Suns make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
——No $626Yes $420
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $65Yes $525
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
——No $1Yes $160
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
—No $407KNo $13K—
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $378K—Yes $118
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
——Yes $286Yes $62K
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $21KYes $2.8K—
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $15KYes $811—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $3.4K—No $7.5K
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $3.3KYes $5.3K—
Will the Washington Wizards make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?
same side · consensus No
——No $345No $3.1K
Will Porto win the 2026-27 Primeira Liga Championship?
same side · consensus No
——No $3.3KNo $6
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
same side · consensus No
—Yes $3.1K—Yes $145
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $2.6KYes $376—
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $1.0KYes $1.8K—
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $80Yes $1.6K—
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $1.3KYes $96—
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $31Yes $534—
Will Patrick Mahomes win the 2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?
same side · consensus Yes
——Yes $1Yes $454
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $164Yes $56—
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $2—No $35
Will the Dallas Cowboys make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
same side · consensus No
——No $26No $5