Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Patrick Mahomes win the 2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 50¢ · $892 held · ends Feb 11, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$892.18
-$177.38
66.5¢ → 49.5¢
-26% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1 | Yes | $3.35 | $453.78 | -$171.85 | 66% 925-482 (1407) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | No | $201.18 | $201.18 | +$67.6 | 50% 1695-1681 (3376) |
 JustADonkCTR | Noavg 62.7¢ | $229.14 | $184.85 | -$44.29 | 55% 920-756 (1676) |
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063cCTR<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $80 | $51 | -$29.5 | 67% 630-315 (945) |
 CUTJALENHURTS<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $0.73 | $1.37 | +$0.66 | 52% 5926-5526 (11452) |
Invested
$3.35
Value
$453.78
PnL
-$171.85
Record
66%
925-482 (1407)
Invested
$201.18
Value
$201.18
PnL
+$67.6
Record
50%
1695-1681 (3376)
JustADonkCTRInvested
$229.14
Value
$184.85
PnL
-$44.29
Record
55%
920-756 (1676)
Invested
$80
Value
$51
PnL
-$29.5
Record
67%
630-315 (945)
CUTJALENHURTS<$100Invested
$0.73
Value
$1.37
PnL
+$0.66
Record
52%
5926-5526 (11452)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.