Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Phoenix Suns make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 31¢ · $1K held
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$1.1K
-$42.38
45.4¢ → 30.5¢
-33% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 31%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
33h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CUTJALENHURTS | Noavg 47¢ | $449.06 | $625.82 | +$176.76 | 52% 5948-5557 (11505) |
ND ndb1CTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $416.72 | $419.51 | -$216.01 | 66% 940-495 (1435) |
AB ABC12345654321<$100 | Noavg 62.2¢ | $71.39 | $44.43 | +$2.55 | 48% 1884-2013 (3897) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 42.6¢ | $104.5 | $36.26 | -$8.24 | 35% 18159-34016 (52175) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $4.49 | $6.88 | +$2.39 | 41% 2019-2860 (4879) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $6.29 | $6.46 | +$0.17 | 58% 19471-14317 (33788) |
CUTJALENHURTSInvested
$449.06
Value
$625.82
PnL
+$176.76
Record
52%
5948-5557 (11505)
Invested
$416.72
Value
$419.51
PnL
-$216.01
Record
66%
940-495 (1435)
Invested
$71.39
Value
$44.43
PnL
+$2.55
Record
48%
1884-2013 (3897)
Invested
$104.5
Value
$36.26
PnL
-$8.24
Record
35%
18159-34016 (52175)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$4.49
Value
$6.88
PnL
+$2.39
Record
41%
2019-2860 (4879)
Invested
$6.29
Value
$6.46
PnL
+$0.17
Record
58%
19471-14317 (33788)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.