Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 77¢ · $527 held
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$526.71
$19.72
68.1¢ → 77¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 77%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Late
163h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1 | Yesavg 60¢ | $117.03 | $159.82 | +$42.79 | 66% 927-485 (1412) |
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | Yesavg 68.5¢ | $133.2 | $152.4 | +$19.2 | 67% 632-316 (948) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Yesavg 76.9¢ | $207.47 | $141.11 | -$24.26 | 50% 1748-1776 (3524) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Noavg 31.9¢ | $62.88 | $71.92 | -$17.56 | 41% 2003-2844 (4847) |
 CUTJALENHURTSCTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $1.37 | $1.47 | -$0.44 | 52% 5933-5551 (11484) |
Invested
$117.03
Value
$159.82
PnL
+$42.79
Record
66%
927-485 (1412)
Invested
$133.2
Value
$152.4
PnL
+$19.2
Record
67%
632-316 (948)
Invested
$207.47
Value
$141.11
PnL
-$24.26
Record
50%
1748-1776 (3524)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$62.88
Value
$71.92
PnL
-$17.56
Record
41%
2003-2844 (4847)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR<$100Invested
$1.37
Value
$1.47
PnL
-$0.44
Record
52%
5933-5551 (11484)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.