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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankdfihdFlaznorp
Record (consensus markets)46% (560–667, n=1227)no settled market53% (5928–5310, n=11238)
Consensus PnL$9.4M—$3.3M
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #547PM monthly #22
Sides with the consensus62% (18 of 29 open)no open consensus position64% (175 of 275 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
none with 10+ settled
  • Tennis +14 pts n=49, ROI +25%
  • NHL +9 pts n=57, ROI +13%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topic——Other Sports −13 pts, n=22
Settled positions, side won97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%100% of 1 at avg 50¢, ROI +50%56% of 1482 at avg 54¢, ROI +28%
Entries under 30¢11% (won 80% of 61)0%29% (won 11% of 423)
Entries 30–50¢35% (won 98% of 203)100% (won 100% of 1)16% (won 40% of 243)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 201)0%17% (won 62% of 255)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 115)0%38% (won 94% of 561)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

5 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankdfihdFlaznorp
Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies
Grizzlies $321K—Pacers $538
Jazz vs. Pelicans
opposite sides · consensus Pelicans
Jazz $70K—Pelicans $36
Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Pacers
Grizzlies $172—Pacers $215
Spread: Pelicans (-4.5)
same side · consensus Jazz
Jazz $31K—Jazz $4
Spread: Celtics (-11.5)
same side · consensus Celtics
Celtics $8.7K—Celtics $215
Hawks vs. Wizards
same side · consensus Hawks
Hawks $2.7K—Hawks $3.6K
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)
same side · consensus Pistons
Pistons $954—Pistons $1.0K
Spread: Hawks (-3.5)
same side · consensus Hawks
Hawks $66—Hawks $374