Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Pelicans (68%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Jazz vs. Pelicans

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (55%) · Jazz at 33¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 5

Jazz33¢Pelicans67¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$80.58

Smart Money Entry

33.2¢ → 32.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Pelicans 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jazz33%

Pelicans68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares6,436

Combined PnL-$72.2

Pelicans5 traders

Total Value$545.04

Total Shares800

Combined PnL-$8.37

Jazz — 55%Pelicans — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpJazz 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrJazz 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Pelicansavg 66.9¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$0.85	51% 4648-4477 (9125)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 66.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$9.15
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 33¢	$660	$650	-$10
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Jazzavg 33.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$64.06	54% 18039-15167 (33206)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Jazzavg 33¢	$281.82	$273.28	-$8.54	71% 7114-2861 (9975)
38 38791873984189	Pelicansavg 66.9¢	$256.34	$254.91	-$1.44	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
NM NM-PCTR	Jazzavg 32.7¢	$238.79	$237.45	-$1.35	40% 1343-2035 (3378)
PU purplegatto	Pelicansavg 69.5¢	$231.46	$223.18	-$6.35	49% 6203-6345 (12548)
VeryLucky888CTR	Jazzavg 32¢	$183.57	$136.28	+$2.96	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Pelicansavg 67.1¢	$35.73	$35.66	-$0.06	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
GH ghorrock<$100	Pelicansavg 69.5¢	$62.53	$28.95	-$0.52	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Jazzavg 33¢	$27.45	$26.62	-$0.83	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Jazzavg 33.4¢	$8.7	$8.32	-$0.38	53% 4711-4218 (8929)
HRTrading<$100	Pelicansavg 67.1¢	$2.35	$2.35	-$0	51% 7648-7364 (15012)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$1,712.58

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$0.85

Record

51%

4648-4477 (9125)

Both legs:

Pelicans$1,052.5866.9¢+$9.15

Jazz$66033¢-$10

HomeRunHazardCTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,445.28

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$64.06

Record

54%

18039-15167 (33206)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Jazz

Invested

$281.82

Value

$273.28

PnL

-$8.54

Record

71%

7114-2861 (9975)

38791873984189

Pelicans

Invested

$256.34

Value

$254.91

PnL

-$1.44

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

NM-PCTR

Jazz

Invested

$238.79

Value

$237.45

PnL

-$1.35

Record

40%

1343-2035 (3378)

purplegatto

Pelicans

Invested

$231.46

Value

$223.18

PnL

-$6.35

Record

49%

6203-6345 (12548)

VeryLucky888CTR

Jazz

Invested

$183.57

Value

$136.28

PnL

+$2.96

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

Flaznorp<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$35.73

Value

$35.66

PnL

-$0.06

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

ghorrock<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$62.53

Value

$28.95

PnL

-$0.52

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$27.45

Value

$26.62

PnL

-$0.83

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$8.7

Value

$8.32

PnL

-$0.38

Record

53%

4711-4218 (8929)

HRTrading<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Pelicans 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpJazz 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrJazz 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.