Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Wizards, while the market favors Hawks (57%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Hawks vs. Wizards

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (70%) · Wizards at 43¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 5

Hawks57¢Wizards43¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

-$99.17

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 42.5¢

-5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Hawks 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks57%

Wizards43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards7 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares7,496

Combined PnL-$159.98

Hawks3 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares4,863

Combined PnL+$60.81

Wizards — 70%Hawks — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+73 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWizards 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWizards 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wizards 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884CTR	Wizardsavg 44.3¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$65.37	51% 4531-4396 (8927)
HO HomeRunHazard	Hawksavg 55¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$44.75	54% 17767-14928 (32695)
nigiri99	Hawksavg 57¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$12.77	46% 8306-9706 (18012)
PU purplegattoCTR	Wizardsavg 45.1¢	$949.14	$907.68	-$41.46	50% 6081-6190 (12271)
GA GaditimaCTR	Wizardsavg 46¢	$460	$430	-$30	48% 6905-7554 (14459)
38 38791873984189CTR	Wizardsavg 48¢	$181.53	$164.25	-$18.13	47% 14501-16071 (30572)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Hawksavg 57¢	$113.42	$113.3	-$0.12	51% 3572-3496 (7068)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 57¢	$58.71	$59.22	+$0.51
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 43¢	$54.71	$54.07	-$0.64
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 45¢	$99.73	$95.35	-$4.38	53% 11760-10241 (22001)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 43¢	$48.74	$47.18	-$0.56	58% 44814-32606 (77420)
GH ghorrock	Hawksavg 54.7¢	$106.75	$37.81	+$3.29	58% 18891-13903 (32794)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 44.2¢	$2.21	$2.13	-$0.09	52% 8525-7760 (16285)

6512395314597884CTR

Wizards

Invested

$1,754.9

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$65.37

Record

51%

4531-4396 (8927)

HomeRunHazard

Hawks

Invested

$1,553.98

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$44.75

Record

54%

17767-14928 (32695)

nigiri99

Hawks

Invested

$1,456.35

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$12.77

Record

46%

8306-9706 (18012)

purplegattoCTR

Wizards

Invested

$949.14

Value

$907.68

PnL

-$41.46

Record

50%

6081-6190 (12271)

GaditimaCTR

Wizards

Invested

$460

Value

$430

PnL

-$30

Record

48%

6905-7554 (14459)

38791873984189CTR

Wizards

Invested

$181.53

Value

$164.25

PnL

-$18.13

Record

47%

14501-16071 (30572)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$113.42

Value

$113.3

PnL

-$0.12

Record

51%

3572-3496 (7068)

Both legs:

Hawks$58.7157¢+$0.51

Wizards$54.7143¢-$0.64

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$99.73

Value

$95.35

PnL

-$4.38

Record

53%

11760-10241 (22001)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$48.74

Value

$47.18

PnL

-$0.56

Record

58%

44814-32606 (77420)

ghorrock

Hawks

Invested

$106.75

Value

$37.81

PnL

+$3.29

Record

58%

18891-13903 (32794)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$2.21

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$0.09

Record

52%

8525-7760 (16285)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Hawks 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+73 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWizards 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWizards 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wizards 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.